Hurricane Melissa devastated the Caribbean last month, killing at least 67 people and causing $50 billion in damages. A new report from World Weather Attribution shows that human-driven climate change amplified the storm's wind speeds, rainfall, and likelihood. Scientists warn of more such events without reducing fossil fuel emissions.
Last month, Hurricane Melissa formed in the Atlantic Ocean, rapidly intensifying into a Category 5 storm with 185-mph winds before striking Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. The National Hurricane Center predicted the catastrophic landfall, which resulted in at least 67 deaths and an estimated $50 billion in damages, according to AccuWeather.
The World Weather Attribution report, released on November 6, 2025, attributes key aspects of the storm's severity to climate change. It found that warming increased maximum wind speeds by 11 mph—enough to exponentially boost damages—and extreme rainfall by 16%, making such conditions six times more likely. "This study found all aspects of this event were amplified by climate change, and that we’ll see more of the same as we continue to burn fossil fuels," said Ben Clarke, a coauthor and research associate at Imperial College London.
Melissa's strength drew from ideal conditions: high humidity, low vertical wind shear, and exceptionally warm ocean waters that it traversed slowly at 1 to 3 mph. This pace allowed the storm to accumulate energy, aided by temperate deep waters that avoided cooling upwells. The hurricane rapidly intensified from 70 to 140 mph in just 18 hours, exceeding thresholds for extreme rapid intensification. Such events are now twice as likely in the Atlantic, particularly near shore, catching communities off guard.
Storm surge raised water levels in Jamaica by up to 16 feet, worsened by rising sea levels and thermal expansion from warmer oceans. Rainfall was also amplified: five-day heavy events in Jamaica are 30% more intense and twice as likely today, while eastern Cuba sees a 50% boost. Pre-storm rains saturated Jamaican soil, exacerbating floods as water raced down mountains. "The storm’s slow movement meant destructive conditions persisted for many hours, with extreme rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and storm surge sustained over extended periods," noted Jayaka Campbell, a coauthor and climate scientist at the University of the West Indies.
Advances in forecasting enabled preparations, including Jamaica's 881 emergency shelters and Cuba's evacuation of 735,000 people. "If there is a silver lining to the storm, it’s that we’re living in a time where we have good forecasts for hurricanes," said Roop Singh, head of urban and attribution programs at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. "It’s likely that this saved many lives." Still, the unprecedented strength poses challenges for preparation based on living memory.