Fed rate cuts fail to pull down treasury yields

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates multiple times since late 2024, yet long-term borrowing costs have remained elevated as bond markets no longer follow the central bank's lead.

Federal debt stood at $37.6 trillion as of September 2025, with interest payments reaching $1.2 trillion in fiscal year 2025. The Treasury issued $30.2 trillion in marketable securities that year to refinance maturing debt and cover new borrowing. When the Fed trimmed 100 basis points across three cuts by the end of 2024, the 10-year Treasury yield barely moved. By September 2025, after an additional cut, the yield remained nearly unchanged from a year earlier.

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Illustration of Bitcoin price falling below 82000 due to rising treasury yields
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Bitcoin falls below $82,000 as treasury yields surge

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Bitcoin traded at $79,083 on May 15, down more than 3 percent after failing to hold above $82,000 resistance. Rising US Treasury yields are drawing institutional capital away from the cryptocurrency and into government debt.

The Federal Reserve has restarted quantitative easing following the end of tightening, adding tens of billions to its balance sheet in recent months.

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The Ministry of Finance awarded $900 billion in a short-term bond auction at a cut-off rate of 12.99%.

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday in the first policy decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Policymakers signaled a more hawkish stance by raising projections for rates and inflation through 2028. Bitcoin and major stock indexes slipped after the announcement.

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The US Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.50 to 3.75 percent range during its first decision under President Kevin Warsh.

Crescat Capital has published analysis warning of persistent inflation driven by US fiscal imbalances.

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