Japanese business leaders positive about wage hikes

At a New Year event in Tokyo, Japanese business leaders expressed optimism about continuing wage increases in this year's spring labor negotiations. Many aim to match or exceed last year's average of 5.39% at major firms. Extending gains to small and midsize companies remains a key challenge.

On January 7, 2026, a New Year event in Tokyo organized by Keidanren, the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and Keizai Doyukai brought together business leaders who voiced strong support for ongoing wage hikes. FamilyMart President Kensuke Hosomi stated, "We want to surpass last year's level" in the upcoming shuntō spring wage negotiations. Itochu President Keita Ishii highlighted the need to elevate wages to attract talent, saying, "We need to make Japan an ideal choice for foreign talent."

Last year, major Japanese companies achieved an average wage increase of 5.39%, marking the second consecutive year above 5%, according to a Keidanren tally. The challenge now is to broaden these gains beyond large firms. Fujitsu President Takahito Tokita noted, "The (Japanese) economy will not be able to survive without small and midsize companies."

Keidanren Chairman Yoshinobu Tsutsui told reporters, "We will aim to further establish (the momentum for wage increases)." Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry head Ken Kobayashi emphasized that small and midsize firms have a strong desire for raises and urged the government and Bank of Japan to "defeat inflation." Keizai Doyukai Chairman Akio Yamaguchi suggested combining evolving AI with robots to create high added value, advocating productivity gains to support wages and investment growth.

These statements reflect efforts to sustain economic momentum amid inflation pressures.

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Following its December 19-20 policy meeting, the Bank of Japan raised its rate to 0.75%, prompting yen fluctuations, sustained high inflation, bank rate adjustments, and measured government support amid U.S. tariff concerns and shunto wage prospects.

Labor unions at major Japanese electronics makers have launched this year's spring wage negotiations in earnest, demanding a monthly pay scale increase of ¥18,000, surpassing last year's record-high request.

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Many major Japanese companies have agreed in full to unions' pay hike demands in this year's shunto negotiations. Close attention is on whether this momentum will spread to small companies, which employ about 70% of Japan's workers.

The Bank of Japan decided on December 19 to raise its short-term policy rate target from 0.5% to 0.75%, marking a 30-year high since 1995 and the first increase since January. The move anticipates wage hikes and aims to achieve the 2% inflation target amid elevated inflation and a weak yen.

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Japan's largest companies raised capital spending in the final quarter of last year, signaling stronger corporate sentiment. The Finance Ministry reported a 4% rise in spending on goods excluding software compared to the previous quarter. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is pushing for more investment in strategic sectors.

Japan's Nikkei share average rallied ahead of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's snap lower house election on February 8, driven by a weaker yen and positive polls for her Liberal Democratic Party. Voters are prioritizing inflation countermeasures, while an AI-doctored campaign video has raised concerns over electoral fairness.

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Government data showed Japan's household spending rose 2.9% year-on-year in November, defying forecasts of a 0.9% decline. The increase, driven by automobile-related expenses and dining out, indicates a steady recovery in private consumption.

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