Japanese business leaders positive about wage hikes

At a New Year event in Tokyo, Japanese business leaders expressed optimism about continuing wage increases in this year's spring labor negotiations. Many aim to match or exceed last year's average of 5.39% at major firms. Extending gains to small and midsize companies remains a key challenge.

On January 7, 2026, a New Year event in Tokyo organized by Keidanren, the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and Keizai Doyukai brought together business leaders who voiced strong support for ongoing wage hikes. FamilyMart President Kensuke Hosomi stated, "We want to surpass last year's level" in the upcoming shuntō spring wage negotiations. Itochu President Keita Ishii highlighted the need to elevate wages to attract talent, saying, "We need to make Japan an ideal choice for foreign talent."

Last year, major Japanese companies achieved an average wage increase of 5.39%, marking the second consecutive year above 5%, according to a Keidanren tally. The challenge now is to broaden these gains beyond large firms. Fujitsu President Takahito Tokita noted, "The (Japanese) economy will not be able to survive without small and midsize companies."

Keidanren Chairman Yoshinobu Tsutsui told reporters, "We will aim to further establish (the momentum for wage increases)." Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry head Ken Kobayashi emphasized that small and midsize firms have a strong desire for raises and urged the government and Bank of Japan to "defeat inflation." Keizai Doyukai Chairman Akio Yamaguchi suggested combining evolving AI with robots to create high added value, advocating productivity gains to support wages and investment growth.

These statements reflect efforts to sustain economic momentum amid inflation pressures.

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Following its December 19-20 policy meeting, the Bank of Japan raised its rate to 0.75%, prompting yen fluctuations, sustained high inflation, bank rate adjustments, and measured government support amid U.S. tariff concerns and shunto wage prospects.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled the likelihood of further interest rate hikes next year, expressing growing confidence that the central bank is nearing its sustainable 2% price stability target. In a speech Thursday at a conference hosted by business lobby Keidanren, Ueda noted that the goal, accompanied by wage increases, is steadily approaching. His remarks underscore investor expectations that the bank will continue hikes even after raising borrowing costs to the highest level since 1995 last Friday.

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The Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan survey showed large manufacturers’ business sentiment index rising to 15 in December from 14 in September, marking a four-year high since December 2021. This improvement reinforces market expectations for a rate hike by the central bank. Nonmanufacturers’ index held steady at 34.

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Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at a possible interest rate hike in a speech on December 1, leading to rising bond yields and a stronger yen. This triggered a decline in the Nikkei stock average. Markets now see heightened odds of a hike at the central bank's December 19 policy meeting.

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Core consumer prices in Tokyo rose 2.3 percent year-on-year in December, slowing from 2.8 percent in November but staying above the Bank of Japan's 2 percent target. The figure fell short of market expectations of 2.5 percent, triggering yen weakness. As a leading indicator for nationwide trends, the data will factor into the BOJ's next policy meeting.

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