Investment from mainland China hit a five-year high in the last quarter of 2025, indicating a measured recovery in Hong Kong's commercial property sector. Colliers forecasts a 10% increase in deal values for 2026. Mainland capital accounted for 60% of big-ticket deals in that period.
Colliers said in a report released on Wednesday that investment from the mainland rose to the highest level in five years in the last quarter of 2025, fueling a measured recovery in Hong Kong's commercial property market. In that period, mainland capital accounted for about 60% of the sector's big-ticket deals, defined as those valued over HK$100 million (US$12.8 million).
Last year marked a turning point for the city's battered commercial property sector, with total investment value jumping 12% from a year earlier to HK$39 billion, according to Thomas Chak, head of capital markets and investment services at Colliers Hong Kong. “This momentum sets the stage for 2026, where we expect capital deployment to accelerate as investors move to capture repricing opportunities before they narrow,” Chak said.
In the luxury residential segment, mainland capital made up about 80% of transactions exceeding HK$100 million on The Peak and in the Southern district, per Centaline Property Agency. Colliers anticipates continued mainland inflows will bring more opportunities to Hong Kong's commercial real estate.