Hong Kong central office rents set to rise in second half

Office rents in Hong Kong’s Central district are forecast to increase faster from the second quarter, reversing a slump that started in late 2019. Stronger demand has already cut grade-A vacancy rates to 9.6 per cent, a four-year low.

US bank Citi reported that premium office rents in Central have risen 1.7 per cent from an October low. Analysts Griffin Chan and Cindy Li said in a report released on Wednesday that lease negotiations have favoured landlords since late 2025 and are strengthening further in 2026.

They attributed the improvement to capital inflows, higher capital market activity and overseas expansion by Chinese firms. Additional gains are expected between the second half of this year and 2027.

Nearby districts are also benefiting. Admiralty is absorbing demand spilling over from Central, while West Kowloon has recorded robust take-up.

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Hong Kong's commercial property market attracted US$1.6 billion in investment in the first quarter, up 41 per cent year-on-year, according to JLL, driven by demand for office, retail and hotel assets. Peer firm CBRE reported HK$12.3 billion (US$1.57 billion), up 105 per cent, amid lower Hibor rates and improving liquidity.

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Hong Kong recorded 17 per cent growth in investment in the first quarter, driven mainly by machinery purchases and construction activities that reflect a steadily improving property market.

Hong Kong's Secretary for Development, Bernadette Linn Hon-ho, announced that the government will offer nine residential sites to developers in the 2026-27 land sale programme, including three carried over from the previous list, expected to yield about 6,650 flats. Combined with other land sources, the potential supply of new flats is estimated to reach 22,580 units, an eight-year high. Linn noted that the market is recovering, with transactions steadily increasing.

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Hong Kong’s government raised the stamp duty rate on residential transactions above HK$100 million (US$12.8 million) to 6.5 per cent from 4.25 per cent in its annual budget this Wednesday, amid surging demand from mainland buyers. Analysts say the 2.25 percentage-point increase is unlikely to alter buying behaviour, as structural forces driving mainland Chinese demand outweigh the higher transaction costs. Mainland buyers accounted for about 80 per cent of such HK$100 million-plus deals in the city so far this year.

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