With Nikola Jokić sidelined at least four weeks by a hyperextended left knee—jeopardizing his MVP eligibility under the 65-game rule—Oklahoma City Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as the clear favorite for a second straight award, backed by the Thunder's league-best 28-5 record.
Jokić's absence, confirmed earlier Tuesday after Monday's loss at Miami, shifts the MVP landscape decisively. The three-time winner, who led the NBA in rebounds and assists while topping advanced stats like PER and BPM, now faces an impossible path to 65 games amid Denver's 16-game stretch in 28 days.
Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in Estimated Plus-Minus (+10.1), ranks second all-time in Win Shares per 48 minutes this season, and averages 32.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 6.4 assists, and 1.5 steals. His Thunder are on pace for 70 wins, bolstering his case.
Betting markets agree: SGA is now -425 to -450 favorite, with Luka Dončić (+430) next after leading scoring (33.7 PPG) but playing on a fifth-place Lakers squad. Longshots like Cade Cunningham and Jalen Brunson would need further SGA misfortune.
A second MVP by age 27 would make Gilgeous-Alexander the 11th player ever, joining Michael Jordan and LeBron James. For Denver (third in West), Jokić's absence drops their net rating to -11.1, testing Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and others.