As climate change intensifies, mining emerges as both a historical culprit and a key solution in the global push for net zero emissions by 2050. Critical minerals like copper, cobalt, and lithium are in high demand for renewable energy technologies, but supply challenges loom large. Experts highlight the irony of the industry's pivot from fossil fuels to green metals.
Mining, described as the 'keystone' industry, underpins global GDP and most human activities, yet it bears responsibility for a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions. Direct and indirect emissions from mining activities account for 4% to 7% of total GHG emissions, while coal extracted through mining contributes about 40% of direct emissions from fossil fuel usage. Energy sectors, responsible for nearly three-quarters of GHG emissions, rely heavily on mined materials.
In 2024, the world recorded its warmest year on record, exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time, with CO2 levels rising by a record amount, according to the World Meteorological Organization. This milestone underscores mining's historic role in industrialization and climate change.
The path to decarbonization now runs through mining, particularly for 'green metals' essential for renewables. Global production in 2024 reached 290,000 tonnes of cobalt and 240,000 tonnes of lithium, per US Geological Survey data, while copper output stood at 23,000 tonnes. In contrast, coal production hit a record over 9 billion tonnes, as reported by the International Energy Agency.
Copper exemplifies the rush: BHP's failed 2024 bid for Anglo American targeted its copper assets, and Anglo's proposed merger with Teck Resources focuses on the metal. The IEA's Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario projects 50% of copper demand for clean energy by 2040, with overall demand growing at least 50% by 2050. However, supply is set to peak later this decade and decline, with ore grades down 40% since 1991, potentially leading to a 30% shortfall by 2035 due to declining discoveries and long lead times of 17 years from discovery to production.
Duncan Money, a mining historian, noted, “It’s ironic that the industry has found this role for itself because the industry has not historically been a climate champion. A lot of the companies that are now billing themselves as green energy producers, until recently a lot of them mined coal as well.” He added, “The road to decarbonisation is through mining, and the profile of the industry is going to change,” with total mined volume expected to decrease for the first time in recent history.
South Africa supplies 70% of global platinum group metals (PGMs), vital for hydrogen fuel cells, but production is forecast to drop to 3.5 million ounces of platinum annually from over 5 million. The IEA anticipates lithium shortages next decade, though supplies of nickel, cobalt, and others may meet demand if projects proceed on schedule.
Vale’s Serra Norte complex in Brazil produced more iron ore in 2024 than the world did a century ago, illustrating mining's scale. Copper exploration budgets doubled from 2016 to 2024, reaching $3.2 billion, yet only 14 of 239 new deposits since 1990 were found in the last decade.
This scramble faces headwinds from climate impacts and environmental concerns, as explored in ongoing series on mining's legacy.