Fitch Ratings reaffirmed Ecopetrol's international rating at BB+ with a negative outlook, while maintaining the national long-term rating at AAA with a stable perspective. These assessments reflect the state oil company's close ties to the Colombian government. However, delays in government payments and changes in the board of directors could impact its liquidity and future operations.
Fitch Ratings announced that Ecopetrol's international rating in foreign and local currency remains at BB+ with a negative outlook, and the national long-term rating at AAA with a stable perspective. This decision, made on October 30, 2025, highlights the company's strong connection to the Colombian government, whose sovereign rating influenced a shift from stable to negative outlook in March 2025.
Ecopetrol's liquidity has been impacted by delays in payments from the Fuel Prices Stabilization Fund (Fepc), which compensates for deficits from selling gasoline and diesel at local prices below export levels. “Fitch expects the Fepc balance to continue decreasing as the government implements price adjustments, falling below US$1,000 million by the end of 2025, with a lesser impact on Ecopetrol's liquidity,” the agency stated in its release.
For 2025, Fitch forecasts total hydrocarbon production at 744,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd). Proven reserves (1P) stand at 1,893 million boepd, with a useful life of 8.2 years at the end of 2024 and 8.4 years in 2025, assuming a 100% reserve replacement rate. The full-cycle cost after taxes has risen to an average of US$51.75 per boepd over the last three years.
However, Fitch warned about the board of directors' composition, with resignations and strategy changes questioning its independence, which could affect reserve growth, production, and bond market access. Liquidity remains strong, with US$2,500 million in cash as of June 30, 2025, and solid capital market access.
Factors that could lead to a downgrade include a sovereign downgrade for Colombia, weakening of the government link, business execution delays, leverage above 2.5x, or 1P reserves below 1,500 million barrels.