主要全球投资银行已上调对韩国2026年经济增长的预测。鉴于全球半导体行业上行周期，平均预期现为2.1%。这比韩国银行的1.8%预测和政府的2%预测更为乐观。
韩国2026年经济增长前景转为更加积极。根据韩国国际金融中心（KCIF）的报告，截至1月底，八大全球主要投资银行的平均预测为2.1%，较上月上调0.1个百分点。这反映了对亚洲第四大经济体的乐观情绪。花旗将预测从2.2%上调至2.4%，预计半导体出口占比将从去年22%翻番超过至2026年的54%。瑞银将其预测从2%上调至2.2%。野村维持2.3%不变，而巴克莱（2.1%）、美国银行（1.9%）、摩根大通（2%）和汇丰（1.8%）保持不变。然而，高盛将其展望从1.9%下调至1.8%。人们对全球半导体周期将保持比预期更强劲且更有韧性的预期很高。不过，一些机构警告称，在美国激进关税政策风险下，非科技行业面临逆风。这些预测取决于三星电子和SK海力士等韩国企业在半导体领域的表现。
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South Korea's real GDP jumped 1.7 percent in Q1 2026 from the prior quarter—the strongest growth in 5½ years—despite Middle East tensions, easily topping the Bank of Korea's 0.9 percent forecast on robust exports and steady domestic demand. Part of the rebound following 2025's modest 1% annual expansion (see prior article in series).
The Asian Development Bank has raised its 2026 growth forecast for South Korea to 1.9 percent, driven by rising exports and improved private consumption. This represents a 0.2 percentage point increase from its December prediction. The outlook matches 1.9 percent projections from the IMF and Korea Development Institute, while the Bank of Korea expects 2 percent.
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) kept its 2026 growth forecast for South Korea unchanged at 1.9 percent despite the Middle East crisis. The institution raised its inflation outlook for this year by 0.7 percentage point to 2.5 percent, citing rising global oil prices. The Ministry of Economy and Finance said strong exports and effects from a supplementary budget kept the growth outlook steady.
South Korea's exports surged 86 percent from a year earlier in the first 10 days of June, reaching a new record high driven by strong semiconductor shipments.