马来西亚专家称南海争端难解因权力不对称

马来西亚国防大学国际关系教授鲁哈纳斯·哈伦在海南的一次海上研讨会表示,东南亚国家联盟成员国倾向于通过“安静外交”解决海上争端,但权力不对称使南海争端难以解决。中国分析人士称,北京支持这种外交方式,前提是主权主张通过双边方式解决。

在2025年12月11日于中国海南省举行的海上研讨会上,马来西亚国防大学国际关系教授鲁哈纳斯·哈伦解释了南海争端为何难以解决。她指出,权力不对称是主要障碍,东南亚国家联盟(Asean)成员国因此转向“安静外交”来处理海上争端。

“我们更愿意悄悄地交谈并达成共识,因为有些问题不能公开告诉世界,”哈伦说。“我们先尝试谈判,然后协调各国向世界呈现什么。”

哈伦表示,Asean成员国倾向于在双边、多边甚至小多边层面进行对话,尽管她未具体说明该机制未能解决哪些争端。作为例子,她提到了马来西亚与印度尼西亚之间关于西巴丹岛和利吉坦岛的领土争端。两国同意将此事提交国际法院,并在2002年获得裁决,结果有利于马来西亚。

中国分析人士补充说,北京也支持Asean的“安静外交”,但前提是主权主张通过双边渠道解决。这反映了地区国家在处理敏感海上问题时的谨慎策略,避免公开对抗以维护稳定。哈伦的观点突显了在涉及大国利益的争端中,较小国家寻求共识的挑战。

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