The ongoing conflict with Iran has halted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, driving up global oil and gas prices. This surge is providing short-term gains for producers outside the Persian Gulf region, such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron. Consumers in the US and Europe are facing higher bills as a result.
The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which began with strikes on Saturday, has severely disrupted energy supplies. Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow channel in the Persian Gulf handling about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas—has come to a near standstill. As a result, the price of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, has risen more than 10 percent since the conflict started almost a week ago. Natural gas prices in Europe have doubled, while US gasoline costs have increased by around 27 cents per gallon.
Industry experts note that these higher prices are benefiting fossil fuel companies not reliant on Persian Gulf supplies. Firms like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, and France's Total stand to gain from the elevated rates for their products. "If you are operating, if you’re producing, and you’re going to enjoy higher prices for your product, you are going to benefit," said Abhi Rajendran, who leads oil market research at Energy Intelligence and is a fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. "These high prices are going to be good for energy companies in general."
Energy stocks have shown mixed responses. Companies such as Venture Global and Cheniere Energy have posted notable gains this week, with an analysis by the EnergyFlux newsletter estimating that US liquefied natural gas exporters and traders could earn nearly $1 billion more per week at current prices. Damage to regional refineries is also making operations more profitable for facilities elsewhere. However, Exxon Mobil's stock is slightly down, and Chevron's has remained stable around pre-war levels, possibly due to geopolitical uncertainty or higher refining costs.
Vincent Piazza, senior equity analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, described the situation as opportunistic for companies. "You see a price spike and you want to capture that upside," he said, while adding, "I don’t think anyone is happy with volatility." Shell declined to comment, and the other mentioned companies did not respond to requests.
The conflict has already caused significant casualties: more than 1,000 people have died in Iran, and Iran's retaliatory strikes have killed over a dozen civilians and six American troops. President Trump has indicated that US and Israeli strikes may continue for four to five weeks. Analysts compare the energy market reaction to the initial surge during the Russia-Ukraine war, which later moderated. Long-term futures suggest prices may stabilize, limiting the windfall's duration.
So far, impacts have been mostly delays in deliveries, with prices easing from initial peaks. But escalation, such as damage to major infrastructure in Qatar or Saudi Arabia, could worsen the situation. EnergyFlux projects that if Qatari gas stays offline into summer, companies might see up to $20 billion in additional weekly profits. Piazza emphasized monitoring what is merely delayed versus destroyed, likening it to a storm rather than a tsunami. Rajendran cautioned that prices reaching $100 or more per barrel could disrupt demand and harm producers.
