The MEC's 2025 School Census recorded a 17% drop in high school enrollments in São Paulo state schools, amounting to a loss of 256,939 students. The Tarcísio de Freitas government attributes the reduction to data adjustments to avoid duplicates, while experts question the reliability of the information. The divergence impacts policy-making and Fundeb resource distribution.
The 2025 School Census, conducted by the Inep and linked to the Ministry of Education, indicated that São Paulo had the largest reduction in high school enrollments among state networks in the country. The drop was 17%, from 1,514,428 enrollments in 2024 to 1,257,489 in 2025, a loss of 256,939. This decline was 2.5 times greater than the national average for state networks.
The São Paulo government, led by Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), contested the data and requested a reanalysis. The Education Secretariat, under Renato Feder, explained that the variation results from a "data management adjustment" to avoid double-counting of the same student's enrollments in multiple modalities or itineraries. "Until 2024, the data counted multiple enrollments for the same student if linked to more than one modality or itinerary. From 2025, there was an adjustment in data management to count, accurately, one enrollment per student," the secretariat stated.
This change is linked to the implementation of the new high school model, reformed in 2017 and altered in 2024, which offers five formative itineraries, including technical professionalizing. The Inep attributes part of the drop to the elimination of about 200,000 enrollments in distance technical itineraries reported by São Paulo in 2024 but not in 2025. Fábio Bravin, Inep coordinator, clarified: "The state provided distance learning for students and stopped doing so in 2025, hence the drop in enrollments".
The Education Secretariat denied cuts in spots or end of in-person or distance offerings, stating that the numerical difference stems from methodological standardization, without duplication in Fundeb transfers.
Experts see issues with the Census's reliability. Guilherme Lichand, professor at Stanford University, said: "In 2024, the data released by the School Census were duplicated... The Inep should have been clearer and more transparent". Ernesto Faria from Iede warned of the impact on resource distribution: "The scale of the error is also very serious". Fernando Cássio from USP highlighted Inep's difficulties in tracking enrollments in the new itineraries, which may affect public policies.
