Galípolo urges caution on interest rates amid Iran war

Banco Central president Gabriel Galípolo called for caution in Brazil's interest rate policy on Monday amid global uncertainties from the Iran war. Speaking at a seminar in Rio de Janeiro, he stressed taking safer steps to address inflation pressures. Former BC president Arminio Fraga criticized the government's fiscal policy for not supporting the central bank.

Gabriel Galípolo, Banco Central president, opened a monetary policy seminar hosted by FGV Ibre in Rio de Janeiro on Monday. He defended the institution's caution in steering interest rates, influenced by the Iran war's impacts, which raised oil prices and inflation forecasts.

"I think I've used the word caution more times since joining the Banco Central than in my entire life before. But at the Banco Central, caution comes with serenity. It's never alone," Galípolo said. He added that the aim is to "take time to better understand the problem and make safer moves".

In March, the Copom cut the Selic rate to 14.75% per year after signs of easing inflation. The BC's Focus bulletin showed market projections for 2026 IPCA rising from 4.31% to 4.36%, nearing the 4.5% target ceiling.

After the event, former BC president Arminio Fraga criticized the Lula government's fiscal policy. "What's missing is a fiscal policy that eases the Banco Central's job a bit, and we haven't had that for a while," he said. He attended the same seminar and noted that weak fiscal policy undermines inflation control.

مقالات ذات صلة

Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad speaks at a press conference, criticizing unsustainable 10% interest rates before the Copom meeting, with economic charts in the background.
صورة مولدة بواسطة الذكاء الاصطناعي

Haddad criticizes central bank interest rates ahead of copom meeting

من إعداد الذكاء الاصطناعي صورة مولدة بواسطة الذكاء الاصطناعي

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad stated that, if he were a Central Bank director, he would vote for lowering interest rates, deeming the 10% annual real rate unsustainable. The comment came on Tuesday, November 4, 2025, a day before the Copom meeting. Analysts view the criticism as counterproductive for the government and economy.

Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) cut the Selic rate by 0.25 percentage points, from 15% to 14.75% per year, on Wednesday (18). The unanimous decision, the first under Gabriel Galípolo's management, comes despite the escalation of the Middle East conflict, which pushed oil prices above US$ 100 per barrel. The statement stresses caution due to uncertainty over the duration of the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.

من إعداد الذكاء الاصطناعي

The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of Brazil's Central Bank kept the Selic rate at 15% per year for the fifth consecutive time on January 28, 2026, but signaled it will start cuts at the March meeting if the economic scenario holds. The decision reflects cooling inflation, which ended 2025 at 4.26%, below the target ceiling. Analysts and groups like the CNI see room for easing, but the BC stresses caution amid unanchored expectations and global uncertainties.

The Bank of Mexico paused its rate-cutting cycle and kept the reference rate at 7.0 percent in its first monetary policy meeting of the year. It also revised its inflation expectations, delaying convergence to the 3.0 percent target until the second quarter of 2027. Analysts note a cautious stance amid fiscal impacts and upside risks.

من إعداد الذكاء الاصطناعي

Colombia's financial market anticipates that the Banco de la República will raise its interest rate at the January 30, 2026 meeting, according to a Citi survey. Out of 25 consulted entities, 17 expect an adjustment to 9.75%, while only five foresee it staying at 9.5%. This outlook is driven by the minimum wage increase and inflation projected at 5.8%.

President Gustavo Petro presented on X several proposals to counter the effects of the Banco de la República's reference rate hike to 11.25%, which he called unconstitutional. Measures include subsidies for fertilizers, low-rate housing policies, and land distribution to peasants. He also called for self-regulation in fuel consumption amid the Middle East war.

من إعداد الذكاء الاصطناعي

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva stated in an interview that during a December 2024 meeting with Daniel Vorcaro, he promised a technical investigation by the Central Bank into Banco Master without political interference. However, documents indicate the formal probe into credit portfolio frauds only began in March 2025. The Presidency clarified that the meeting addressed Vorcaro's complaints of persecution.

 

 

 

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