Colombia's sales expectations decline for 2026 according to Fenalco

Fenalco's Economic Logbook reveals a decline in business optimism for 2026, with only 34% of respondents expecting improvements in their operations over the next six months. While November saw a sales boost from Black Days, uncertainty about consumption weighs on the commercial sector. The report highlights transformations in shopping malls and threats from platforms like Shein and Temu.

Colombia's organized commerce ends 2025 on a mixed note, according to Fenalco's Economic Logbook. On one hand, November's discount season boosted billing after a slow start, with 38% of business owners reporting higher physical sales volumes compared to the same month last year. Yet, the expectations indicator has fallen over the past four months, signaling pessimism for the start of 2026.

Black Days solidified as a key driver, dubbed by Fenalco a "national emotional holiday." 85% of consumers participated, with a high average ticket: 53% spent over $500,000, focusing on technology, fashion, and accessories. Electronic transactions hit $2.6 trillion, up 17% from 2024.

The report addresses emerging threats, such as cross-border platforms Shein and Temu in the fashion sector, and pressure from local startups in cosmetics and beauty through innovation and social media. In physical retail, cross-merchandising has spurred impulse buys.

Shopping malls have reshaped their layouts: clothing space dropped from over 50% early in the century to 32% now, reflecting shifts in the family basket per Dane data. Apparel's weight fell from 7.31% in 1998 to 3.98% in 2025, while restaurants and hotels rose from 6.98% to 9.43%. Consultant Luis Marinho explains: "Malls have acquired an identity of their own far beyond the traditional U.S. model. Today, they function as places for encounter, coexistence, and integrated services."

Despite the pandemic, occupancy holds at 93%. For sustainability, infrastructure cut energy use by 20% with LED and solar self-generation, covering 60% of common areas. In popular zones, these spaces create jobs mostly for female heads of household, driving social development.

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Photorealistic scene of bustling Bogotá streets with retail boom, factory, and billboard announcing 3.1% economic growth by Dane.
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Colombia's economy grew 3.1% in November 2025 according to Dane

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The National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane) revealed that the Economic Tracking Indicator (ISE) grew 3.1% in November 2025 compared to the same month in 2024, marking 18 consecutive months of positive growth. However, the manufacturing sector showed limited progress with 0.7% production growth, while sales fell 0.4%, and retail commerce rose 7.5%. Overall industrial production varied by 1.7%, driven by electricity supply.

South Africa's retail sector is entering the 2025 festive season with cautious resilience amid structural shifts. Sales in textiles, furniture, and online channels are rising, but households remain budget-conscious due to inflation and value concerns. This transition highlights a blend of seasonal spikes and long-term changes in consumer behavior.

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As December arrives, Colombian shopping malls launch immersive strategies with decorations, cultural events, and operational reinforcements to draw visitors during the peak consumption season. Meanwhile, online platforms like MercadoLibre and Amazon allow gift returns within 30 days, provided specific conditions are met. These efforts aim to enhance the shopping experience in a month accounting for 22% of annual commerce sales.

Valle del Cauca is undergoing a deep economic transformation driven by micro, small, and medium enterprises (mipymes), technology adoption, and leadership in artificial intelligence. According to the Cali Chamber of Commerce, 99.6% of businesses are mipymes generating employment and diversifying sectors like commerce and agribusiness. The Business Rhythm Survey shows optimism for the second half of 2025, with 49.6% expecting sales increases.

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Robberies and thefts have surged in the weeks leading up to Christmas, raising alarms in Chile's commerce and government sectors. Police statistics show surprise robberies increased by 20.1% in 2024 compared to the previous year. To counter this, the government launched the 'Navidad Segura' plan, deploying 2,100 carabineros.

The Colombian company Shalom, specializing in Christmas hampers, is solidifying its role in the multimillion-dollar end-of-year business. For 2025, it projects billing over 1.2 billion pesos and jobs for more than 40,000 peasants. Its expansion includes diversification and ambitious long-term goals.

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Colombia's inflation is projected at 4.9% for 2026, missing the Banco de la República's target range for the sixth consecutive year. A Corficolombiana report estimates it will close 2025 at 5.2%, roughly the same as last year, signaling a stall in disinflation. The goal of nearing 3% is now delayed until 2027.

 

 

 

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