Colombia's sales expectations decline for 2026 according to Fenalco

Fenalco's Economic Logbook reveals a decline in business optimism for 2026, with only 34% of respondents expecting improvements in their operations over the next six months. While November saw a sales boost from Black Days, uncertainty about consumption weighs on the commercial sector. The report highlights transformations in shopping malls and threats from platforms like Shein and Temu.

Colombia's organized commerce ends 2025 on a mixed note, according to Fenalco's Economic Logbook. On one hand, November's discount season boosted billing after a slow start, with 38% of business owners reporting higher physical sales volumes compared to the same month last year. Yet, the expectations indicator has fallen over the past four months, signaling pessimism for the start of 2026.

Black Days solidified as a key driver, dubbed by Fenalco a "national emotional holiday." 85% of consumers participated, with a high average ticket: 53% spent over $500,000, focusing on technology, fashion, and accessories. Electronic transactions hit $2.6 trillion, up 17% from 2024.

The report addresses emerging threats, such as cross-border platforms Shein and Temu in the fashion sector, and pressure from local startups in cosmetics and beauty through innovation and social media. In physical retail, cross-merchandising has spurred impulse buys.

Shopping malls have reshaped their layouts: clothing space dropped from over 50% early in the century to 32% now, reflecting shifts in the family basket per Dane data. Apparel's weight fell from 7.31% in 1998 to 3.98% in 2025, while restaurants and hotels rose from 6.98% to 9.43%. Consultant Luis Marinho explains: "Malls have acquired an identity of their own far beyond the traditional U.S. model. Today, they function as places for encounter, coexistence, and integrated services."

Despite the pandemic, occupancy holds at 93%. For sustainability, infrastructure cut energy use by 20% with LED and solar self-generation, covering 60% of common areas. In popular zones, these spaces create jobs mostly for female heads of household, driving social development.

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