A new wave of anti-government protests in Iran, triggered by deepening economic stress, has expanded beyond merchant strikes in Tehran’s bazaar and spread across much of the country, according to rights groups and international media reports. A U.S.-based commentator and several human rights monitors say authorities have responded with mass arrests and a widening crackdown since last summer’s 12-day Iran-Israel conflict, while analysts warn that any sudden breakdown of central control could create regional security risks.
A renewed round of protests has gripped Iran since late December 2025, beginning with shopkeepers and merchants in Tehran’s historic bazaar and then spreading to dozens of cities and provinces, according to Reuters and rights groups tracking the unrest.
Rights monitors have reported a rising death toll and hundreds to more than a thousand arrests, though figures vary by organization and Iranian authorities have not published a comprehensive accounting. Reuters, citing the Kurdish rights group Hengaw and the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), reported at least 25 to 29 deaths during the first nine days of demonstrations and more than 1,200 arrests, with Tehran acknowledging at least two security personnel killed.
Separately, a Jan. 7 opinion essay published by The Daily Wire argued that a key test for the Islamic Republic’s durability will be the loyalty of the security services. The author, Brenda Shaffer, wrote that “multiple defections” by security forces and regime insiders had already occurred, saying the desertions were largely clandestine and, in her view, enabled sabotage. Those claims could not be independently verified.
The Daily Wire essay also linked the unrest to broader strains on Iran’s governance capacity, including chronic shortages of essential services. Iran has faced repeated winter shutdowns of schools and government offices in recent years amid fuel and power constraints, according to reports by AFP carried by multiple outlets.
On the crackdown, Shaffer wrote that Iran arrested more than 21,000 opponents after the 12-day war with Israel. Separately, Reuters reported in August 2025 that Iranian police said they arrested up to 21,000 “suspects” during the 12-day conflict, a figure also cited by state media. Human rights groups, including Amnesty International, have described post-war arrests as part of a broader internal repression campaign.
Claims about executions also require careful parsing. The Daily Wire essay said Iran executed “close to 1,500” people in 2025, describing it as a level not seen since 1989. Amnesty International reported in September 2025 that Iranian authorities had executed more than 1,000 people so far that year, and said it was the highest number Amnesty had recorded in at least 15 years; the full-year total for 2025 has not been independently confirmed by major international organizations in the sources reviewed.
Shaffer also described ethnic and geographic fault lines as a complicating factor, writing that the latest protest wave was concentrated in Iran’s Persian-populated center and that some ethnic minority regions had not joined at the same scale. Reuters has reported the protests spread widely across Iran, but comprehensive, independently verified breakdowns by ethnicity were not available in the sources reviewed.
In warning of potential consequences from a rapid regime breakdown, Shaffer urged the United States and allies to prepare contingency plans to secure Iran’s enriched uranium and other strategic materials in the event of a loss of central control—an argument she framed by comparison to the Soviet Union’s collapse and Georgia’s 2003 Rose Revolution.
Iranian officials have repeatedly blamed foreign adversaries for unrest and have pledged a tough response. President Masoud Pezeshkian has promised economic steps aimed at stabilizing the currency, while security forces have continued to confront demonstrators in multiple provinces, according to Reuters.
