Dylan Cease, the top-ranked starting pitcher on MLB.com's free-agent list, enters the 2025-26 offseason with a polarizing profile after a 4.55 ERA season with the San Diego Padres. Despite surface-level struggles, advanced metrics like a 3.43 xERA suggest underlying strength. Executives view him as better than his ERA indicates, positioning him for a potential nine-figure deal.
The free-agent market for starting pitchers this winter lacks the star power of last year, when Corbin Burnes and Max Fried secured contracts over $200 million. Dylan Cease stands out as the premier option, ranked first on MLB.com's top-30 list by Mark Feinsand. However, his 2025 performance with the Padres raises questions about his ace potential.
Cease's ERA ballooned to 4.55 from 3.47 in 2024, placing him 16th among 70 pitchers with at least 150 innings. This mark, equivalent to a 94 ERA+ (6% below league average), sits between Jack Flaherty and Luis Severino, who underperformed on recent multiyear deals. Command issues persisted, with a 9.8% walk rate in the 20th percentile and a 46.5% zone rate ranking 213th among 221 starters throwing 500+ pitches. He issued multiple walks in 20 of 32 starts, including six against the Dodgers in August. When behind in the count, opponents hit .539 OPS; ahead, it was 1.007 OPS. He averaged just 5.25 innings per start, the lowest among qualified pitchers except Will Warren and Clay Holmes, limited by 18.1 pitches per inning.
Yet, optimism surrounds Cease's peripherals. His 3.43 xERA ranked in the 74th percentile, matching his 78th-percentile 2024 figure, highlighting a 1.12-run gap due to bad luck and defense. A .320 BABIP was fifth-highest among qualified starters, despite a league-average 37.5% hard-hit rate—up from .263 BABIP in 2024 with softer contact. The Padres' defense faltered at -7 Outs Above Average with him pitching, worse than -2 in 2024. An NL executive told Feinsand, "Cease is better than his 2025 ERA."
Cease dominated with strikeouts, leading qualified starters at 33.4% swing-and-miss rate and sixth at 29.8% strikeout rate (215 total, fifth straight 200+ season). Since 2021, his 32.9% whiff rate tops all but four of 288 starters. Durability shines through 32+ starts for five straight years, unmatched except by José Berríos, Patrick Corbin, and Kevin Gausman. Injury-free since 2021, Cease provided reliability amid Padres' rotation woes, like Michael King's and Yu Darvish's 15 starts each.