New research indicates that a limited nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan could harm the ozone layer as severely as a larger war between the United States and Russia.
Climate models presented last month at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly in Vienna examined the effects of soot and other pollutants from hypothetical nuclear wars. Researchers modeled an India-Pakistan exchange releasing 5 million tonnes of soot and compared it to a US-Russia scenario releasing 16 million tonnes. Zhihong Zhuo of the University of Quebec in Montreal stated that even a small-scale nuclear war can produce far-reaching global side effects beyond the conflict regions. The study found that tropical air circulation would carry pollutants higher and spread them more widely, leading to greater ozone damage despite lower soot volumes. Ozone loss would be most pronounced over the poles, with ultraviolet radiation potentially rising by up to 30 percent in tropical regions. This would compound the cooling from a nuclear winter and delay recovery by harming plants and reducing agricultural yields worldwide. The findings build on earlier estimates that a billion people could face starvation from nuclear winter effects alone.