The Swedish Armed Forces assess that the Russian military threat to Sweden will increase until 2030, alongside growing hybrid warfare. The agency has submitted priorities to the government to bolster defense, including long-range missiles and spy satellites. The situation is described as the most severe since World War II and is expected to worsen.
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden's security situation has been described as the most severe since World War II. On Monday, the Swedish Armed Forces submitted their comprehensive priorities for shaping the military defense to the government. According to the assessment, the Russian conventional military threat will increase until 2030, while Russia's capacity for hybrid warfare and economic pressure also grows.
Lieutenant General Carl-Johan Edström, head of the defense staff, underscores the risks: 'We see a risk that Russia continues its growth regardless of developments in Ukraine.' This could involve more ground forces at the Russian-Baltic border, stronger long-range capabilities, and an enhanced Russian fleet in the Arctic Ocean.
To counter the threat, the Armed Forces prioritize multidomain operations, where land, sea, air, space, and cyber units collaborate. Specific investments include drones and anti-drone systems, long-range strikes up to 200 miles into enemy territory, control over the Baltic Sea, improved situational awareness via sensors on land, in the air, and in space, as well as stronger air and missile defense.
Edström emphasizes the need for capability to strike targets inside Russia: 'We need to increase our long-range strike capability in depth. Both for offensive elements in our defense and for deterrence.' Sweden must also bolster operations in Finland and the Baltics, focusing on drone warfare and ammunition stockpiles. For intelligence gathering, systems like Globaleye and domestic satellites are required to cover areas from beyond the Urals to the Atlantic and south of the Mediterranean.
The Armed Forces criticize the government's steering: 'There is an extraordinary situation with danger in delay.' The agency calls for more freedom, decision-making authority, and flexibility across budget years, as the current direction leads to suboptimization. The defense budget is expected to grow from 148 billion kronor this year to over 200 billion by 2030, to meet NATO's requirements and the rising threat.
NATO's integrated air and missile defense is central, and Sweden needs to contribute more to protect bases and infrastructure against everything from ballistic missiles to small drones.
