On January 10, 2026, Daniel Ortega completed 19 consecutive years in power in Nicaragua, surpassing Anastasio Somoza García and becoming the longest-serving dictator in Latin America and the Caribbean in the 21st century. He shares 'co-presidency' with his wife Rosario Murillo under a 2025 constitution establishing dynastic succession. His regime, defined by repression and economic alliances, confronts internal fractures and external pressures.
Daniel Ortega, leader of the Sandinista Front, returned to power in 2007 through a pact with former president Arnoldo Alemán that lowered the electoral threshold to 35% with a five-point lead. He won with 38% of the vote, aided by the sudden death of Herty Lewites three months before the election. In his second term, Ortega dismantled democratic institutions via a 'coup from above,' seizing control of the judiciary, legislature, electoral body, and police, bolstered by alliances with business elites since 2009 and over $5 billion in Venezuelan aid.
Illegally reelected in 2011 and 2016, the regime faced massive protests in April 2018, with 100 days of civic insurrection demanding an end to the dictatorship. The response involved police and paramilitary repression, leading to over 350 deaths, thousands of arbitrary detentions, and tens of thousands of exiles. Since September 2018, a police state has suspended democratic rights.
In November 2021, Ortega jailed seven opposition pre-candidates and secured a third consecutive term, rejected by the OAS. Between 2021 and 2025, the regime eliminated over 5,500 civil society organizations, targeted the Catholic Church, and stripped nationality from more than 450 citizens. The economy relies on remittances equaling 30% of GDP and DR-CAFTA exports.
Dynastic succession favors Rosario Murillo, who governs with 25 operators, including five of her children, following purges in the Sandinista ranks. The fall of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela sparked panic, resulting in over 60 new political prisoners. Though Nicaragua is not a priority for the Trump administration, external pressures or internal fractures could topple the regime, necessitating a strong democratic opposition for transition.
