In a closed-door session, Philippine officials and civil society members discussed handling a potential influx of refugees from the Taiwan Strait amid a possible Chinese forcible reunification of Taiwan.
The Philippines, due to its proximity to Taiwan—particularly the provinces of Batanes, Cagayan, and Ilocos Norte—could be significantly affected by any conflict in the Taiwan Strait. A flight from Laoag in Ilocos Norte to Taipei takes less than an hour. In a closed-door session, officials from various government agencies and civil society members examined challenges in managing hundreds of thousands of people, mostly undocumented, seeking refuge in resource-scarce Batanes province.
Key questions raised included: Which agency would lead humanitarian efforts? How to handle non-Southeast Asian nationals without visa-free entry? What about visa-free Taiwanese? Is the Philippines ready for such a crisis? Northern local governments are eager to plan but wary of sparking panic, especially in quiet towns where military sounds evoke war fears.
Diplomatically sensitive, discussions tiptoe around the Philippines' One China Policy, which respects Beijing's view that Taiwan is part of China. Yet President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has been clear: The Philippines will be drawn into a Taiwan war, 'kicking and screaming.' In December 2025, China conducted 'Justice Mission 2025' drills practicing a Taiwan blockade, explicitly warning against 'separatist forces and external interference.'
On December 31, 2025, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. expressed concern: 'Deeply concerned by China’s military and coast guard actions around Taiwan that undermine regional peace and stability, further creating cracks in an already fragile geopolitical environment.' Contributing factors include Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae's November 2025 statement that a Taiwan attack is an 'existential threat,' and a mid-December 2025 US $11-billion arms sale to Taiwan including advanced rockets and missiles. The US also passed $2.5 billion in military aid for the Philippines.
US assets like the Typhon launcher in Ilocos Norte since April 2024 and NMESIS systems in the north signal preparations. Analyst Aries Arugay suggests the Philippines should reinforce the rules-based international order to rally middle powers against belligerent superpowers, reminding them of reputational judgments.
