RBI warns West Asia war may hurt India growth outlook

The Reserve Bank of India cautioned that an escalation in the West Asia conflict could derail the country's positive growth trajectory. The central bank assessed that the impact is likely to remain contained in the near term.

The Reserve Bank of India issued the warning in its assessment of economic conditions. It noted that while current effects from the conflict appear limited, further escalation poses risks to India's otherwise favorable outlook for the period ahead, including GDP projections for 2026-27.

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RBI headquarters with repo rate display amid West Asia conflict indicators, for monetary policy news illustration.
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RBI holds repo rate at 5.25% amid West Asia conflict

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The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday kept the key policy rate, the repo rate, unchanged at 5.25 per cent. Amid uncertainties from the West Asia conflict, the committee retained its neutral stance. It has lowered the GDP growth forecast to 6.9 per cent for FY27.

India's economy could face challenges from the West Asia conflict, which may impact oil prices and overall growth. According to Crisil Intelligence, real GDP growth is expected to reach 7.1 percent in FY27, driven by consumer spending and investment. Exports are anticipated to increase, while retail inflation might climb to 4.3 percent.

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Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the central bank is in “wait and watch mode” amid uncertainties from the West Asia war, with second-round effects being the real concern. In a speech at Princeton University on April 18, he stressed preventing supply shocks from embedding in price levels through inflation expectations rather than demand compression. He highlighted India’s significant exposure to the region.

Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Strait of Hormuz disruptions, oil prices rose nearly 8% amid ongoing tensions. Indian markets shed Rs 6.35 lakh crore on Tuesday, with the rupee weakening on supply fears. Globally, the dollar strengthened as a safe haven while the yen and euro weakened.

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Indian stock markets experienced a significant downturn on Friday. The decline was driven by geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran along with a weakening rupee.

The Indian rupee sank to a fresh record low against the US dollar, fueled by soaring energy import costs during an ongoing energy crisis and accelerating capital outflows. This has intensified pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to potentially hike interest rates, ending a pause in monetary tightening.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) kept its 2026 growth forecast for South Korea unchanged at 1.9 percent despite the Middle East crisis. The institution raised its inflation outlook for this year by 0.7 percentage point to 2.5 percent, citing rising global oil prices. The Ministry of Economy and Finance said strong exports and effects from a supplementary budget kept the growth outlook steady.

 

 

 

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