インド準備銀行は、西アジアでの紛争が激化すれば、インドの順調な経済成長軌道が阻害される可能性があると警告した。同中央銀行は、現時点ではその影響は限定的であるとの見解を示している。
インド準備銀行は経済状況に関する評価の中でこの警告を発した。同銀行は、紛争による現状の影響は限定的であるものの、さらなる情勢悪化は、2026-27年度のGDP予測を含むインドの今後の良好な経済見通しにリスクをもたらすと指摘した。
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The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday kept the key policy rate, the repo rate, unchanged at 5.25 per cent. Amid uncertainties from the West Asia conflict, the committee retained its neutral stance. It has lowered the GDP growth forecast to 6.9 per cent for FY27.
India's economy could face challenges from the West Asia conflict, which may impact oil prices and overall growth. According to Crisil Intelligence, real GDP growth is expected to reach 7.1 percent in FY27, driven by consumer spending and investment. Exports are anticipated to increase, while retail inflation might climb to 4.3 percent.
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Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the central bank is in “wait and watch mode” amid uncertainties from the West Asia war, with second-round effects being the real concern. In a speech at Princeton University on April 18, he stressed preventing supply shocks from embedding in price levels through inflation expectations rather than demand compression. He highlighted India’s significant exposure to the region.
Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Strait of Hormuz disruptions, oil prices rose nearly 8% amid ongoing tensions. Indian markets shed Rs 6.35 lakh crore on Tuesday, with the rupee weakening on supply fears. Globally, the dollar strengthened as a safe haven while the yen and euro weakened.
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Indian stock markets experienced a significant downturn on Friday. The decline was driven by geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran along with a weakening rupee.
The Indian rupee sank to a fresh record low against the US dollar, fueled by soaring energy import costs during an ongoing energy crisis and accelerating capital outflows. This has intensified pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to potentially hike interest rates, ending a pause in monetary tightening.
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) kept its 2026 growth forecast for South Korea unchanged at 1.9 percent despite the Middle East crisis. The institution raised its inflation outlook for this year by 0.7 percentage point to 2.5 percent, citing rising global oil prices. The Ministry of Economy and Finance said strong exports and effects from a supplementary budget kept the growth outlook steady.