ソガタ・バタチャリア氏は、インド経済が過熱している兆候はほとんどないと述べた。同氏は、成長や金融政策を左右する可能性のあるいくつかの要因を挙げている。
原油価格の下落は、中央銀行の予測を上回る経済成長を後押しする可能性がある。この展開は、利上げの必要性を緩和するかもしれない。サプライチェーンの混乱や根深い投入コストの圧力については、依然として注視が必要である。現時点では金融環境は引き締め的であると見られる。新たな預金や借り入れスキームによる強力な外貨流入が、今後の金融政策に影響を与える可能性がある。インド準備銀行（RBI）は、成長懸念とインフレ予測のバランスを取るかじ取りを迫られている。
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The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday kept the key policy rate, the repo rate, unchanged at 5.25 per cent. Amid uncertainties from the West Asia conflict, the committee retained its neutral stance. It has lowered the GDP growth forecast to 6.9 per cent for FY27.
A majority of economists expect the Reserve Bank of India to keep its policy rate unchanged at the June meeting. Geopolitical tensions and adverse weather forecasts are cited as key factors behind the anticipated decision.
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The Reserve Bank of India cautioned that an escalation in the West Asia conflict could derail the country's positive growth trajectory. The central bank assessed that the impact is likely to remain contained in the near term.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged citizens to reduce spending on gold and petroleum products amid falling foreign exchange reserves and rising import bills linked to the West Asia conflict.
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Traders have shifted to bullish positions on Indian banks following measures by the Reserve Bank of India to allow foreign currency borrowing. Bank Nifty rose 4.25 percent last week, outperforming the broader Nifty index.
India's retail inflation for April rose to a 13-month high of 3.48 percent, while wholesale inflation more than doubled to 8.3 percent. The increases are driven mainly by higher fuel and food costs amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
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Building on earlier concerns over GDP growth projections, the escalating West Asia war is pressuring Indian equity markets and disrupting footwear and textile sectors through supply shortages and cost spikes. Prashant Jain of 3P Investment Managers views the impact as marginal and transient, while industry reports show input costs up 10-50%.