Pakar melihat minim tanda ekonomi mengalami panas berlebih

Saugata Bhattacharya menyatakan bahwa hanya ada sedikit indikasi ekonomi India mengalami panas berlebih. Ia mencatat beberapa faktor yang dapat membentuk pertumbuhan dan kebijakan moneter.

Penurunan harga minyak mentah dapat mendorong pertumbuhan melampaui prakiraan bank sentral. Perkembangan ini dapat mengurangi kebutuhan untuk kenaikan suku bunga.

Gangguan rantai pasok dan tekanan biaya input yang melekat masih memerlukan pemantauan ketat. Kondisi keuangan saat ini tampak restriktif.

Arus masuk mata uang asing yang kuat dari skema simpanan dan pinjaman baru dapat memengaruhi kebijakan moneter di masa depan. RBI sedang menyeimbangkan kekhawatiran pertumbuhan terhadap proyeksi inflasi.

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RBI headquarters with repo rate display amid West Asia conflict indicators, for monetary policy news illustration.
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RBI holds repo rate at 5.25% amid West Asia conflict

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The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday kept the key policy rate, the repo rate, unchanged at 5.25 per cent. Amid uncertainties from the West Asia conflict, the committee retained its neutral stance. It has lowered the GDP growth forecast to 6.9 per cent for FY27.

A majority of economists expect the Reserve Bank of India to keep its policy rate unchanged at the June meeting. Geopolitical tensions and adverse weather forecasts are cited as key factors behind the anticipated decision.

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The Reserve Bank of India cautioned that an escalation in the West Asia conflict could derail the country's positive growth trajectory. The central bank assessed that the impact is likely to remain contained in the near term.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged citizens to reduce spending on gold and petroleum products amid falling foreign exchange reserves and rising import bills linked to the West Asia conflict.

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Traders have shifted to bullish positions on Indian banks following measures by the Reserve Bank of India to allow foreign currency borrowing. Bank Nifty rose 4.25 percent last week, outperforming the broader Nifty index.

India's retail inflation for April rose to a 13-month high of 3.48 percent, while wholesale inflation more than doubled to 8.3 percent. The increases are driven mainly by higher fuel and food costs amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

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Building on earlier concerns over GDP growth projections, the escalating West Asia war is pressuring Indian equity markets and disrupting footwear and textile sectors through supply shortages and cost spikes. Prashant Jain of 3P Investment Managers views the impact as marginal and transient, while industry reports show input costs up 10-50%.

 

 

 

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