Arvind Panagariya sarankan RBI biarkan nilai tukar rupee melemah

Arvind Panagariya, ketua Komisi Keuangan ke-16, mendesak Reserve Bank of India untuk berhenti membela rupee secara agresif menggunakan cadangan devisa. Ia menyebut ambang batas psikologis 100 rupee per dolar hanyalah sekadar angka.

Panagariya mengatakan bahwa membiarkan mata uang terdepresiasi akan menjadi respons yang tepat terhadap tekanan dari kenaikan harga minyak. Ia memperingatkan bahwa intervensi yang berkelanjutan akan menyebabkan cadangan devisa terkuras tanpa hasil yang bertahan lama. Saran ini muncul di tengah tantangan mata uang yang sedang dihadapi India.

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Trading floor at Bombay Stock Exchange showing screens with Indian rupee's 9.9% FY26 decline, Asia's worst, amid oil surge and stock drops.
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Indian rupee ends FY26 as Asia's worst performer with 9.9% decline

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The Indian rupee depreciated by 9.88% against the US dollar in FY26, marking it as Asia's weakest currency amid record foreign investor outflows and surging oil prices. The Reserve Bank of India intervened to stabilize the currency, while domestic funds provided a record cushion against the exits. Equity indices like Nifty and Sensex recorded their worst fiscal performance since FY20.

The Indian rupee continues to weaken against the US dollar. On Tuesday, it hovered around 95.36 in early trading. Since the beginning of this year, the currency has fallen by around 5.64 per cent.

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Continuing its sharp FY26 depreciation—after breaching 94 in late March—the Indian rupee fell to a fresh record low of 95.28 against the US dollar on Tuesday, May 5. Oil prices exceeding $110 a barrel have intensified inflation and balance-of-payments worries, prompting Reserve Bank of India interventions amid curbs on foreign exchange positions.

The rupiah reached Rp17,500 per US dollar on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. The pressure stems from a mix of global and domestic factors.

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The rupiah closed weaker at Rp17,668 per US dollar on Monday, May 18, 2026. The government and Bank Indonesia have taken steps to maintain stability of the currency.

India's banking system liquidity surplus has narrowed to ₹75,483 crore amid advance tax outflows of Rs 2 lakh crore and forex market interventions. Money market rates rose as a result, leading the Reserve Bank of India to conduct a repo operation. Economists estimate the RBI sold over $15 billion to support the rupee.

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Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said Indonesia's rupiah should strengthen due to strong national economic fundamentals. However, the rupiah weakened to Rp16,997 per US dollar on March 16, 2026. He remains confident the IHSG will hit 10,000 by end-2026.

 

 

 

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