Rupee India tembus 94 dan dekati 95 ke rekor terendah baru di tengah kekhawatiran perang Teluk

Rupee India melemah lebih jauh hingga menembus angka 94 dan mendekati 95 terhadap dolar AS—rekor terendah baru—setelah anjlok ke 93,73 pada pekan lalu. Lonjakan harga minyak mentah akibat ketegangan di Laut Merah dan kekhawatiran akan perang Teluk yang berkepanjangan memicu penurunan ini, sementara bursa saham India mencatatkan kerugian selama lima minggu berturut-turut. Intervensi terbatas dari Reserve Bank of India telah meningkatkan kekhawatiran akan depresiasi lebih lanjut.

Melanjutkan tren penurunannya—setelah menyentuh 93,73 per USD sekitar 21 Maret di tengah konflik Asia Barat—rupee India melewati angka 94 dan mendekati 95 pada Jumat, 27 Maret, mencatatkan rekor terendah lainnya. Meningkatnya ketegangan di wilayah Laut Merah telah memicu lonjakan harga minyak mentah, yang menimbulkan kekhawatiran akan potensi gangguan di Selat Hormuz dan perang Teluk yang berlarut-larut. Para pedagang mencatat intervensi RBI yang minim, sehingga membiarkan depresiasi berakselerasi. Indeks acuan NSE Nifty dan BSE Sensex mengalami aksi jual besar-besaran, memperpanjang kerugian ekuitas hingga minggu kelima berturut-turut di tengah kegelisahan investor atas ketergantungan impor minyak India. Para analis memperingatkan bahwa konflik yang terus berlanjut dapat mendorong rupee menuju 95 atau lebih jika tidak ada langkah kebijakan yang kuat, yang menggarisbawahi kerentanan pasar negara berkembang terhadap guncangan energi dan geopolitik global.

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Trading floor at Bombay Stock Exchange showing screens with Indian rupee's 9.9% FY26 decline, Asia's worst, amid oil surge and stock drops.
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Indian rupee ends FY26 as Asia's worst performer with 9.9% decline

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The Indian rupee depreciated by 9.88% against the US dollar in FY26, marking it as Asia's weakest currency amid record foreign investor outflows and surging oil prices. The Reserve Bank of India intervened to stabilize the currency, while domestic funds provided a record cushion against the exits. Equity indices like Nifty and Sensex recorded their worst fiscal performance since FY20.

Continuing its sharp FY26 depreciation—after breaching 94 in late March—the Indian rupee fell to a fresh record low of 95.28 against the US dollar on Tuesday, May 5. Oil prices exceeding $110 a barrel have intensified inflation and balance-of-payments worries, prompting Reserve Bank of India interventions amid curbs on foreign exchange positions.

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The Indian rupee plunged to a fresh all-time low of 93.73 against the US dollar, its sharpest single-day drop since late 2022. This extends the depreciation trend that saw it weaken to 92.42 earlier in the week amid surging oil prices from West Asian conflicts and foreign investor outflows.

India's 10-year benchmark bond yield rose 7 basis points to 6.94% on Friday, signaling concerns over inflation and potential monetary tightening. High Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel, driven by the West Asia conflict, have intensified fears, compounded by the rupee falling below 94 to the dollar.

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Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the central bank is in “wait and watch mode” amid uncertainties from the West Asia war, with second-round effects being the real concern. In a speech at Princeton University on April 18, he stressed preventing supply shocks from embedding in price levels through inflation expectations rather than demand compression. He highlighted India’s significant exposure to the region.

Oil prices peaked above $114 per barrel on March 9 as the Iran war intensified, building on yesterday's surge past $110. Indian markets plunged amid fuel cost fears, while Asian governments rolled out measures to shield consumers from spiking prices.

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Sharp declines were recorded in gold and silver prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange. At 7:30 PM on Wednesday, gold traded at 1,61,600 rupees per 10 grams, down 1,703 rupees. Silver prices fell by about 12,000 rupees to 2,66,190 rupees.

 

 

 

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