Newly appointed Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Norikazu Suzuki has expressed his intention to revise rice production policy to one based on demand. This marks a shift from the production increase policy implemented by former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba just three months ago, in consideration of farmers' concerns. However, persistently high rice prices continue to burden consumers.
At his inaugural press conference in October, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Norikazu Suzuki stressed, “It is an important and fundamental rule to produce rice based on demand. We will administrate reassuring and far-sighted agricultural policies,” signaling his intent to alter the Ishiba administration’s decision made at a Cabinet meeting in August.
Rice production for staple food consumption is expected to reach 7.48 million tons in 2025, up 10% from the previous year, with a forecast of 7.11 million tons in 2026, down 5% year-on-year. The ministry projects demand for fiscal 2026 at 6.94 million to 7.11 million tons, stating the policy change aligns with the maximum projected demand. The Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas, formulated in March, outlines increases in rice production for export markets and processed products over the next five years. Suzuki noted, “The rice production policy based on demand remains unchanged under the Basic Plan.”
Meanwhile, the average price of rice at supermarkets nationwide fell to the ¥3,500 range per 5 kilograms in July after large-scale releases of government stockpiles, but has rebounded to the ¥4,000 range for nine consecutive weeks, nearing the record high of ¥4,285 set in mid-May. Ishiba had expressed strong determination to suppress prices, saying, “The prices must be in the ¥3,000 range.” Former agriculture minister Shinjiro Koizumi sought to lower prices through stockpiled rice releases. On a TV program on Oct. 27, Suzuki said, “Rice prices should be determined by the market. I will not commit to a specific rice price,” indicating stabilization through supply-demand balance.
Amid soaring prices, private-sector imports of overseas rice have surged to 86,523 tons in the first half of fiscal 2025, more than 200 times the volume from the same period last year. A tariff of ¥341 per kilogram applies, yet imports remain cheaper than domestic rice. Aeon Co. began selling California-produced Calrose medium grain rice nationwide in June, with prices dropping to ¥2,138 per 4 kilograms in August from an initial ¥2,894. About 14,000 tons were imported and are expected to sell out soon, praised for its lighter texture.
A 60-year-old farmer producing Tsuyahime and other brand rice in Nanyo, Yamagata Prefecture, said, “Bringing water to unmanaged farmland is not an easy task. We just cannot increase production as instructed.” Miyagi University professor emeritus Kazunuki Oizumi commented, “Koizumi took measures against rapidly soaring rice prices in a swift manner, demonstrating that agricultural policies are meant for consumers, too.” He added, “A return to traditional agricultural policies is seen in Suzuki, who comes from the agriculture ministry. He prioritizes the perspective of rice producers.”