Saham pertahanan melonjak saat saham perjalanan turun di tengah konflik Timur Tengah

Rudal-rudal terus meluncur melintasi Timur Tengah, mendorong kenaikan saham kontraktor pertahanan sekaligus menyebabkan penurunan saham maskapai penerbangan dan kapal pesiar. Analis JPMorgan mencatat bahwa konflik ini menciptakan pemimpin dan yang tertinggal yang jelas di pasar. Para investor sedang mengawasi Selat Hormuz, yang mengangkut 20% pasokan minyak global.

Konflik yang sedang berlangsung di Timur Tengah, yang melibatkan Iran, telah menyebabkan pergerakan pasar yang signifikan. Saham pertahanan sedang melonjak akibat penipisan bertahap stok pencegat rudal, mendorong saham kontraktor pertahanan lebih tinggi. Pemasok LNG Amerika juga mengalami kenaikan, melonjak dalam perdagangan Senin, sementara tarif kapal tanker berlipat ganda dalam waktu kurang dari satu hari. JPMorgan analysts wrote on Monday that the conflict is creating leaders and laggards. Tim McDonnell dari Semafor mencatat bahwa ketakutan dan kurangnya asuransi kemungkinan menjadi hambatan yang lebih besar daripada blokade potensial di Selat Hormuz yang lebarnya 20 mil. Di sisi negatif, saham kapal pesiar dan maskapai penerbangan sedang turun, karena perusahaan-perusahaan ini rentan terhadap fluktuasi harga bahan bakar. Royal Caribbean, yang melakukan lindung nilai sekitar 60% biaya bahan bakarnya, kurang terdampak dibandingkan Norwegian dan Carnival. Maskapai penerbangan, yang melakukan lindung nilai lebih ekstensif, masih menghadapi tantangan dari penangguhan rute regional, menurut JPMorgan. Selain itu, taruhan populer Wall Street pada pasar berkembang sedang mengalami kerugian.

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Illustration of Middle East tensions causing stock market drops, oil price spikes, and investor flight to US dollar.
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Middle East conflict fuels global market volatility and oil price surge

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Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, involving the US, Israel, and Iran, have triggered a slide in Asian shares and a surge in oil prices. Investors are turning to the US dollar for safety amid fears of prolonged energy cost increases and inflation. While emerging markets face short-term losses, experts see long-term resilience.

Airline shares across Asia plunged on Monday as oil prices spiked 20% due to the intensifying U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, exacerbating fuel costs and airspace restrictions. The conflict has stranded passengers and disrupted global travel, compounding market fears of prolonged supply shortages.

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Amid rising oil prices and risk-off sentiment from the Middle East war, analysts recommend sectors where firms have pricing power. Chinese companies in energy, petrochemicals, and agriculture stand to benefit from surging oil prices and easing deflation.

Tokyo stocks declined for a third consecutive day as tensions escalated in the Middle East over Iran. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned of significant potential impacts on the economy, while the government stated there would be no immediate disruptions to oil supplies.

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Oil prices continued their sharp rise toward $100 per barrel on the eighth day of the Israel-US-Iran conflict, heightening fears of supply disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz. Building on last week's surges amid initial strikes, the escalation is fueling global market volatility, with Indian equities facing elevated inflation risks from oil import dependence.

US-Israeli airstrikes over the weekend killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, prompting Iranian retaliation across the region and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This escalation has driven oil prices above $85 per barrel, the highest since July 2024, amid concerns over disrupted energy flows. Global markets reacted with falling stocks and rising commodity prices.

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India's Sensex and Nifty continued to decline on March 5 amid persistent uncertainties from the Iran conflict, surging crude prices, and fears of escalation, compounding the sharp initial drop earlier in the week. Retail investors saw mutual fund and stock portfolios turn negative, prompting advice on navigating wartime volatility.

 

 

 

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