Global coffee prices are tumbling due to anticipated record harvests from major producers like Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, and Indonesia. Brazil's Conab agency projects Arabica output could reach 49 million bags in 2026/27, up from 37.7 million last year, thanks to favorable rainfall. Ethiopian exporters warn of tougher times ahead with collapsing margins and rising uncertainty.
Global coffee prices are falling rapidly as major producers prepare for record harvests. Brazil's Conab agency forecasts that Arabica production could reach 49 million bags in the 2026/27 season, a significant increase from the previous year's 37.7 million bags, driven by beneficial rainfall in key growing regions. This anticipated supply increase is already pressuring prices and affecting Ethiopian exporters. Industry leaders in Ethiopia have cautioned that exporters are confronting shrinking profit margins and growing uncertainty. The surge in global output, led by countries such as Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, and Indonesia, signals challenging periods ahead for those in the Ethiopian coffee trade, which relies heavily on international markets.