Two-time Candidates winner Ian Nepomniachtchi has shared his tiered predictions for the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament, naming Fabiano Caruana and Praggnanandhaa R as top favorites. In an interview, he assessed the eight-player field based on experience, form, and mental resilience ahead of the event in Cyprus. The tournament, set for March 29 to April 16, will determine the challenger for the world chess championship.
Ian Nepomniachtchi, a two-time winner of the FIDE Candidates Tournament and former world championship challenger, provided his insights in a recent interview with chess podcaster CM Greg Mustreader. With the 2026 edition approaching in just two months, Nepomniachtchi offered a candid tier list of the participants, emphasizing the event's psychological demands. He likened winning the Candidates to advancing from base camp on Everest, with the world championship as the ultimate peak. The tournament will take place from March 29 to April 16 at the Cap St Georges Hotel & Resort in Cyprus, where the victor earns the right to challenge the reigning world champion. Nepomniachtchi placed Fabiano Caruana and Praggnanandhaa R in Tier A as the clear favorites. For Caruana, who qualified via the 2024 FIDE Circuit, Nepomniachtchi praised his professionalism and commitment, quoting him as saying, “There is definitely one more cycle when I will try to do my best.” However, he warned of Caruana's risk of burnout, as seen in the 2022 Candidates in Madrid. Praggnanandhaa impressed with his versatility: “He plays very well in general... He is quite versatile, he has a large choice of openings. I think he will have a good team.” In Tier B, Nepomniachtchi ranked Wei Yi, Hikaru Nakamura, and Anish Giri as strong contenders but not outright favorites. He lauded Wei Yi's balance: “He loses very little with Black, and he is quite creative with White... He is not afraid of forgotten lines.” Nakamura, the field's highest-rated player, drew uncertainty due to limited classical play: “I just can’t say anything—I don’t understand what shape he will be in... A person without chess practice, who plays only on the internet… it feels a bit different.” Giri's experience stood out: “You should not underestimate how well he can pull himself together... He is an immensely experienced chess player.” Currently, Giri is competing at the Tata Steel Masters in Wijk aan Zee, Netherlands, with 4.5/10 after Round 10. Tier C includes Andrey Esipenko and Javokhir Sindarov, the 2025 World Cup winner. Esipenko's peak form puts him near the top, though it's his first Candidates. Sindarov, though talented, lacks experience: “He is a very good chess player, but he is rather young... I would not treat him as a favourite.” At the bottom, Tier D features Matthias Bluebaum, whom Nepomniachtchi sees surviving rather than shining: “I don’t think he’ll shine, but I also don’t think he’ll crash and burn.” Bluebaum recently defeated Giri in 25 moves at Tata Steel, crossing 2700 and reaching second place. Nepomniachtchi advised calm play: “If he just plays chess calmly, it will affect the result much better.” Overall, he stressed the tournament's mental toll: “Almost always, almost everyone in this tournament underperforms... The tension will eat you up anyway.”
