Fabiano Caruana, the world number three and favourite for the upcoming Candidates tournament, suffered two defeats in St Louis this week. He lost to Wesley So and Levon Aronian in the American Cup after strong performances in the Saint Louis Masters. These setbacks highlight vulnerabilities in his game as he prepares for the event in Cyprus.
Fabiano Caruana, ranked world No 3 and the reigning US champion, entered the week as the 5-2 favourite to win the Candidates tournament at the Cap St Georges Resort in Pegeia, Cyprus, scheduled from 29 March to 16 April. He aimed to sharpen his form with two preparatory events in his hometown of St Louis.
In the Saint Louis Masters, Caruana finished second to Mikhail Antipov, remaining unbeaten with a score of 7/9, which was considered a solid result. However, his momentum faltered in the American Cup, a double-elimination knockout tournament. There, he faced defeats against Wesley So and Levon Aronian in identical patterns: winning the first classical game as White, losing the second as Black, and then dropping the speed tie-break 1.5-2.5.
Both losses exposed a recurring issue, with Caruana being outplayed in queenless middlegames and endgames. Wesley So secured victory in 68 moves, while Levon Aronian triumphed in 40 moves, gaining a decisive edge by move 21. Observers note that opponents at the Candidates may target this weakness.
Hikaru Nakamura, world No 2, and Javokhir Sindarov, the 2025 World Cup winner from Uzbekistan, stand as co-second favourites at around 5-1 odds. The field also features strong contenders including China's Wei Yi, India's Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, the Netherlands' Anish Giri, Germany's Matthias Blübaum, and Russia's Andrey Esipenko. Regional instability in Cyprus poses a potential risk to the tournament's proceedings.
These results have arguably opened the Candidates field wider, increasing opportunities for the other participants.
