Collapse of last US-Russia nuclear treaty affects China and world

The expiry of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New Start) between the US and Russia could trigger a three-way arms race involving Beijing, Washington, and Moscow, analysts warn. China has reiterated its refusal to join trilateral nuclear disarmament talks with the US and Russia, citing disparities in nuclear stockpile sizes. Beijing hopes the US responds positively to Russia's suggestions to safeguard global strategic stability.

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New Start) between the US and Russia is set to expire soon, marking a significant break in over five decades of bilateral nuclear arms control. Absent a last-minute move, the world will for the first time in decades be without a treaty limiting nuclear deployments by the United States and Russia, which together account for about 90 per cent of the world’s nuclear weapons.

“China has taken note of the constructive suggestions previously made by Russia regarding the follow-up arrangements of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New Start) and hopes that the United States will respond positively to truly safeguard global strategic stability,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on Tuesday.

Beijing also reiterated its refusal to join trilateral nuclear disarmament negotiations with Washington and Moscow, despite repeated calls for such talks by US President Donald Trump. China cited the disparity in nuclear stockpile sizes as the reason for its refusal. Analysts warn the expiry of New Start could trigger a vicious circle and three-way arms race between Beijing, Washington, and Moscow.

This development highlights vulnerabilities in global nuclear stability, involving key terms like nuclear weapons, nuclear warheads, ICBMs, and strategic deterrence.

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Shocked South Korean diplomat reacts to U.S. and China redacting North Korea denuclearization from key security documents, illustrated on a map of the Korean Peninsula.
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U.S. and China omit North Korea denuclearization in security strategies

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The Trump administration's new National Security Strategy, released on December 5, omitted any mention of North Korea's denuclearization, shocking South Korea. China's recent defense white paper also removed support for a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. Seoul must now urgently strengthen self-reliant defense and alliance coordination.

US President Donald Trump stated on Thursday via social media that the expiring New Start treaty should not be extended, advocating instead for a new, modernized nuclear agreement involving China and Russia. The treaty expired this week, leaving the world without a legally binding nuclear weapons control pact for the first time in half a century. Experts fear this could end arms control efforts amid heightened global tensions.

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米国とロシア間の核軍縮条約New STARTは2026年2月初旬に延長されず失効した。ドナルド・トランプ大統領は1年間の更新提案を拒否し、オバマ時代合意を批判、中国を含む新条約を要求した。マルコ・ルビオ国務長官は将来の枠組みで中国の急速な核増強に対処する必要性を強調した。

Following recent Foreign Ministry warnings, China has urged the United States to join a united front against resurgent Japanese militarism, citing threats to its Taiwan interests. State media highlight Tokyo's blurring of civilian-military lines, including PM Sanae Takaichi's nuclear armament proposal.

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Beijing has accused the United States of exaggerating the so-called "China threat" via its new defense policy act, urging Washington to adopt a rational view of bilateral ties and avoid enforcing negative provisions. The foreign ministry stated that the act interferes in China's internal affairs and undermines its sovereignty, security, and development interests.

Chinese President Xi Jinping called on China and Russia to boost high-level exchanges and pragmatic cooperation during a virtual meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, while urging joint efforts to maintain global strategic stability. Xi extended New Year greetings to Putin and the Russian people, expressing readiness to chart a new blueprint for bilateral ties with him. Putin reciprocated with Spring Festival wishes to Xi and the Chinese people.

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中国が全艦隊を核動力潜水艦に置き換える計画を進めている中、日本がこれに追随する可能性が議論されている。東京は人員不足や冗長性の問題など、さまざまな障害に直面している。

 

 

 

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