Collapse of last US-Russia nuclear treaty affects China and world

The expiry of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New Start) between the US and Russia could trigger a three-way arms race involving Beijing, Washington, and Moscow, analysts warn. China has reiterated its refusal to join trilateral nuclear disarmament talks with the US and Russia, citing disparities in nuclear stockpile sizes. Beijing hopes the US responds positively to Russia's suggestions to safeguard global strategic stability.

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New Start) between the US and Russia is set to expire soon, marking a significant break in over five decades of bilateral nuclear arms control. Absent a last-minute move, the world will for the first time in decades be without a treaty limiting nuclear deployments by the United States and Russia, which together account for about 90 per cent of the world’s nuclear weapons.

“China has taken note of the constructive suggestions previously made by Russia regarding the follow-up arrangements of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New Start) and hopes that the United States will respond positively to truly safeguard global strategic stability,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on Tuesday.

Beijing also reiterated its refusal to join trilateral nuclear disarmament negotiations with Washington and Moscow, despite repeated calls for such talks by US President Donald Trump. China cited the disparity in nuclear stockpile sizes as the reason for its refusal. Analysts warn the expiry of New Start could trigger a vicious circle and three-way arms race between Beijing, Washington, and Moscow.

This development highlights vulnerabilities in global nuclear stability, involving key terms like nuclear weapons, nuclear warheads, ICBMs, and strategic deterrence.

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The Trump administration's new National Security Strategy, released on December 5, omitted any mention of North Korea's denuclearization, shocking South Korea. China's recent defense white paper also removed support for a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. Seoul must now urgently strengthen self-reliant defense and alliance coordination.

Leading Chinese think tanks released a report on Thursday in Beijing, warning of rising nuclear weapon ambitions by Japan's right-wing forces and calling on the international community to closely monitor and counter the threat. The report highlights Japan's recent attempts to revise its three non-nuclear principles, raising concerns over the international nuclear nonproliferation regime.

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中国は、日本が核兵器保有を望んでいるとして非難を強めており、東京の長年の核放棄宣言にもかかわらず、二国間関係の亀裂を深めている。中国の外務省と国防省は木曜日に、東京の再軍備努力を非難する声明を発表した。

Chinese President Xi Jinping called on China and Russia to boost high-level exchanges and pragmatic cooperation during a virtual meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, while urging joint efforts to maintain global strategic stability. Xi extended New Year greetings to Putin and the Russian people, expressing readiness to chart a new blueprint for bilateral ties with him. Putin reciprocated with Spring Festival wishes to Xi and the Chinese people.

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During the 20th round of China-Russia strategic security consultations in Moscow, the two sides exchanged views on Japan and reached a high degree of consensus, vowing to uphold World War II victory outcomes and oppose any whitewashing of colonial aggression. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian urged Japan to retract erroneous remarks on Taiwan and take concrete actions to enable normal exchanges.

The US-China race for hi-tech resources intensifies across the Global South, pressuring swing nations in the middle to strike a balance. The Venezuela crisis has laid bare the limits of China's economic-centric diplomacy in competing with the US, serving as a stark reminder that spheres of influence continue to shape global politics in this new era of great power rivalry.

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2026年、日本はドナルド・トランプ米大統領の下での日米同盟の将来性に懸念を抱いている。中国との関係が急激に悪化する中、トランプ氏が北京との取引で地域を分断する可能性が東京を悩ませている。

 

 

 

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