January ISE falls below 2% for first time in 11 months

Colombia's January 2026 ISE grew by 1.55%, dipping below 2% for the first time in 11 months. Andi warned that public spending remains the main driver, while productive sectors like mining and industry deteriorate. Tertiary activities led growth at 2.7%.

The National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane) reported that Colombia's January 2026 Economic Tracking Indicator (ISE) reached 1.55%, adjusted for calendar effects to 1.45%. This marks a slowdown from January 2025's 2.0% and falls below the historical average of 3.5%. Primary activities (agriculture, mining, and hydrocarbons) declined by -2.4%, and secondary activities (manufacturing and construction) by -1.0%. In contrast, tertiary activities grew 2.7%, driven by public administration, health, and recreation (4.5%), electricity, gas, and water supply (3.1%), and commerce, transport, and accommodation (2.6%).. Colombia's National Association of Entrepreneurs (Andi) highlighted a 'structural weakening' of the economy, with public spending as the main driver. Andi president Bruce Mac Master stated: «The challenge for this year is to recover dynamism in the main productive sectors, such as mining, hydrocarbons, construction, or industry».. Mac Master added that exogenous factors must be managed, but the Government needs to send «signals of confidence to guarantee conditions that allow reactivating investment, production, and confidence».. In manufacturing, the -1% drop aligns with Dane surveys showing negative balances in production (-0.5%) and sales (-0.7%). For mining, drilling rig activity in December 2025 fell seven units from the 117 peak in December 2023, with stable projections for Q1 2026..

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Photorealistic scene of bustling Bogotá streets with retail boom, factory, and billboard announcing 3.1% economic growth by Dane.
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Colombia's economy grew 3.1% in November 2025 according to Dane

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The National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane) revealed that the Economic Tracking Indicator (ISE) grew 3.1% in November 2025 compared to the same month in 2024, marking 18 consecutive months of positive growth. However, the manufacturing sector showed limited progress with 0.7% production growth, while sales fell 0.4%, and retail commerce rose 7.5%. Overall industrial production varied by 1.7%, driven by electricity supply.

DANE reported that manufacturing industrial production fell 0.5% in January 2026 compared to January 2025, with real sales down 0.7%. This marks two consecutive months of production contraction and three for sales.

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Colombia's National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane) reported that manufacturing production rose 1.9% in October 2025 compared to October 2024. Manufacturing sales grew 2.4%, and employed personnel increased 0.7%. Bruce Mac Master, president of Andi, highlighted sectoral heterogeneity and the importance of the year's final months.

Colombia's January inflation hit 1.18% monthly, exceeding historical averages and highlighting the broad impact of the minimum wage increase on the IPC basket. The services component drove the uptick, with an annual variation of 6.33%. This breaks two months of moderation, pushing annual inflation to 5.35%.

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Following projections of around 5.2% for year-end 2025, Colombia's National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane) reported actual annual inflation of 5.1% for December 2025, down 10 basis points from December 2024. This below-expectation figure underscores persistent pressures in housing, services, and food amid minimum wage hikes, as the central bank eyes interest rate moves.

In January 2026, Colombia's unemployment rate stood at 10.9%, the lowest for a first month since 2001, according to the Dane. While 324,000 new jobs were created, 60% were self-employment positions. This indicates employment improvement, but raises concerns about job quality.

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Fenalco's Economic Logbook reveals a decline in business optimism for 2026, with only 34% of respondents expecting improvements in their operations over the next six months. While November saw a sales boost from Black Days, uncertainty about consumption weighs on the commercial sector. The report highlights transformations in shopping malls and threats from platforms like Shein and Temu.

 

 

 

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