After a 2.6% drop in economic activity in February, according to INDEC, private consultancies estimate a March recovery driven by agriculture. Equilibra forecasts a 1.5% year-on-year rise and 1% monthly desesasonalized. The first quarter would end with 0.4% growth versus 2025.
Economic activity fell 2.6% in February from January, the worst since December 2023, per INDEC data. Excluding agriculture, EMAE was stable at +0.1% year-on-year, with the desesasonalized series rebounding 0.4% after a 2.7% drop in February, according to Equilibra.
The boost comes from agriculture, where corn harvest would grow nearly 20% and beef production rose 3.5% year-on-year, lifting agropecuario EMAE 15%. This would contribute 1.4 percentage points to the total 1.5% year-on-year growth estimated for March by Equilibra. Mining and agriculture grew 8.4%, though the rest showed adverse results.
In industry, FIEL's IPI marked +0.6% year-on-year in March after eight months of decline, with gains in chemicals, plastics, oil refining, and non-metallic minerals. Construya Index rose 1.3% monthly desesasonalized and 11.1% year-on-year. In farming, Rosario Board of Trade's IACA-BCR fell 2.4% monthly but rose 18% year-on-year.
For the first quarter, the average would be +0.4% year-on-year, stable desesasonalized versus end-2025. Equilibra projects 2% annual growth for 2026, less than half the budget's 5%.
