「Predict 2026」の主催者は、カンファレンスの開催地をラスベガスからニューヨークへ変更した理由について、ネバダ州ゲーミング管理委員会からの圧力があったと指摘した。同委員会はこの介入を強く否定している。この論争は、予測市場と州の賭博規制当局の間で続いている緊張関係を浮き彫りにした。
Predict 2026の主催者は、ネバダ州ゲーミング管理委員会からの規制当局による圧力が、イベントをラスベガスから移転させる要因になったと述べた。彼らはARIAリゾート＆カジノでの開催に対する懸念を理由として挙げている。今回の移転は、同州で予測市場プラットフォームが直面している広範な法的課題の中で行われた。
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Minnesota lawmakers have advanced legislation aimed at restricting prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, setting up a clash with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which argues federal law gives it exclusive authority over many of those products.
Hong Kong's government has suspended its plan to launch legal basketball betting, citing the rise of prediction markets. Home and Youth Affairs Minister Alice Mak Mei-kuen said the decision considers local circumstances and evolving external conditions to protect public interest. Former lawmaker Doreen Kong Yuk-foon called for predicting technological influences in future policy papers.
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Venture capital firm a16z has filed an 18-page letter backing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in its disputes with states over prediction markets. The firm argues that federal law preempts state regulations on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. It claims state crackdowns undermine the CFTC's mandate for impartial market access.
A new report from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket shows prediction markets shifting from occasional bets to platforms with daily retail engagement. Trading volumes on Polymarket have surged to over $20 billion monthly in early 2026. The industry is projected to reach $240 billion this year.
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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued its initial proposed rulemaking on prediction markets Wednesday. The rules aim to clarify which event contracts qualify as being in the public interest under federal law.
Spain’s gambling regulator has ordered internet providers to block access to prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi. The move targets unlicensed betting products tied to future events. Proceedings against the companies are expected to last three to four months.
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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued a no-action letter providing regulatory relief to prediction market operators. The measure eases compliance with swap data reporting rules for fully collateralized event contracts.