Persistent territorial and security hurdles in Trump-Zelensky Ukraine peace talks

After their December 28 Mar-a-Lago meeting—where President-elect Donald Trump announced 90% agreement on a peace framework—Trump and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky underscored remaining obstacles like territorial concessions, security guarantees, the Zaporiyia nuclear plant, and NATO expansion. Trump predicted clarity on success within weeks, while Zelensky demanded long-term anti-Russia protections.

The leaders' Sunday discussions advanced some areas but stalled on key 'thorny issues,' with few details released and no firm deadline set. Trump noted progress toward a deal 'getting closer,' particularly on Donbas divisions and security, building on the prior 100% agreement on Ukraine's military protections.

Territorial concessions remain central. Russia occupies ~116,000 sq km (19.2% of Ukraine), including Crimea (annexed 2014) and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporiyia, and Kherson—annexations widely deemed illegal. A US-Russia proposal floats de facto recognition of Crimea and portions of Donetsk/Luhansk as Russian, plus Ukrainian troop withdrawal from 5,000 sq km in Donetsk for a neutral demilitarized zone. Zelensky rejected this, invoking Ukraine's Constitution on inviolable territory, and insisted any changes require a public referendum with international oversight: 'Our society has to choose and has to vote.'

Security guarantees divide parties: Zelensky seeks 30-50 year commitments; earlier talks eyed 15 years. Trump suggested Europe lead with US support, but Russia insists on Ukrainian neutrality, army caps (from 800,000 troops), and rights for Russian speakers.

The Zaporiyia plant—Europe's largest (6 reactors, 5.7 GW), Russian-held since March 2022—is contentious. A US-backed trilateral plan proposes joint operations under a US director, with 50% energy output to the US. Trump cited progress, noting potential restart without Russian sabotage.

NATO expansion irks Putin, who wants constitutional Ukrainian non-membership and NATO pledges against including Kyiv, offset by Article 5-style guarantees for Ukraine.

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