In a Fresh Air interview, The Atlantic's David A. Graham sketches out how President Donald Trump could try to tilt the 2026 midterms — from posting federal forces near polling places to pressuring election officials and even having agents seize voting equipment — while early moves on redistricting and federal monitoring show the ground already shifting.
David A. Graham, a staff writer at The Atlantic, told NPR’s Fresh Air that the Trump administration has multiple levers it could pull ahead of the 2026 midterms, including stationing troops near polling places, pressuring local officials, and ordering federal agents to seize voting machines. Graham emphasized he was outlining possibilities drawn from interviews with election experts and officials, not predicting outcomes. (wlrn.org)
Signals of how the landscape is changing are already visible. In late October, the Justice Department said it would send federal election observers to Passaic County, N.J., and five California counties for the Nov. 4 off‑year elections — a step DOJ described as routine voting‑rights monitoring but one Democrats criticized as potentially intimidating. The move followed requests from state GOP leaders. (justice.gov)
Recent off‑year results also highlighted political crosscurrents. In New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the governor’s race by a double‑digit margin, while New York City recorded its highest mayoral turnout in more than 50 years as Democrat Zohran Mamdani won the open seat. (apnews.com)
California voters, meanwhile, approved Proposition 50, a temporary shift to legislatively drawn congressional maps intended to counter mid‑decade GOP redistricting elsewhere. Analysts say the change could help Democrats net as many as five U.S. House seats in 2026. Shortly after the measure passed, Gov. Gavin Newsom urged other Democratic‑led states to follow suit, declaring, “We can de facto end Donald Trump’s presidency as we know it” if Democrats retake the House in 2026. (voterguide.sos.ca.gov)
Republican‑led states have already moved. Texas and Missouri enacted new maps; North Carolina passed another mid‑decade redraw likely to add a GOP seat; and Ohio’s redistricting commission approved a plan that improves Republicans’ odds in two Democratic‑held districts. Indiana, pressed by the White House, called a special session, though internal GOP resistance remains. (texastribune.org)
Election‑administration capacity is another weak point. Surveys show sustained harassment and threats have fueled turnover among experienced local election officials, with many reporting colleagues who resigned at least in part over safety concerns. (politico.com)
That churn is particularly felt in Arizona’s Maricopa County, a perennial flash point. Former Republican recorder Stephen Richer — who publicly defended election procedures after 2020 — lost his 2024 primary to state Rep. Justin Heap and later left office, underscoring how sustained attacks can reshape key posts. (washingtonpost.com)
The information ecosystem has also shifted. Trump has publicly floated pulling broadcast licenses from ABC and NBC and has cheered an FCC chair who threatened stations over content — rhetoric media‑law experts say runs into First Amendment limits. At the same time, litigation has revealed how false 2020 fraud claims persisted on air despite internal doubts, even as Fox News remains ratings‑dominant. (cnbc.com)
Social platforms have rolled back some moderation policies: Meta ended its U.S. third‑party fact‑checking program in favor of a Community Notes model, and YouTube has moved to reinstate some accounts previously banned for election or COVID‑19 misinformation, handling such content under broader rules. (about.fb.com)
Election security capacity at the federal level is in flux as well. The administration’s fiscal 2026 budget proposal would cut CISA’s staff by roughly a third and reduce several programs, including election security support — changes that current and former officials warn could weaken assistance to states and counties. (nextgov.com)
North Carolina illustrates the stakes: the GOP legislature approved a congressional map expected to aid Republicans, and under state law Democratic Gov. Josh Stein cannot veto redistricting plans. (reuters.com)
Beyond legal and administrative levers, Graham noted the political effect of federal force deployments. In 2025, Trump placed Washington, D.C.’s police under temporary federal control and deployed National Guard troops despite crime trending down; in Los Angeles, the Pentagon later ended a months‑long Marine deployment tied to protests over immigration enforcement. Scholars warn such moves can normalize an armed federal presence ahead of elections and chill participation. (cnbc.com)
Trump’s own rhetoric has raised alarms among democracy scholars. At a July 2024 Christian conservative event, he told supporters, “You won’t have to vote anymore … In four years, you don’t have to vote again.” He later said he meant that the country would be “fixed.” (snopes.com)
Courts have curbed some efforts to rewrite election rules by executive action. Federal judges this year blocked key parts of a Trump order that sought documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration and barred counting of mail ballots received after Election Day. (apnews.com)
Graham’s takeaway: with House control likely to hinge on a handful of seats, even limited pressure or procedural “hardball” could matter at the margins. His scenarios are not predictions, he stressed — but given recent moves on redistricting, federal monitoring, media pressure and security posture, they are options the public should understand well before ballots are cast. (wlrn.org)
