Republicans' hopes for a Supreme Court decision to weaken the Voting Rights Act and enable favorable redistricting before the 2026 midterms are fading as election timelines tighten. The case, Louisiana v. Callais, could allow the GOP to redraw maps in the South to gain more congressional seats, but experts predict a ruling too late for implementation. State officials warn that changing maps now would create logistical chaos for elections.
The U.S. Supreme Court is deliberating Louisiana v. Callais, a case that could undermine Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which prohibits racial discrimination in elections and has spurred the creation of majority-minority congressional districts. Republicans seek a ruling that would let them eliminate such districts, potentially adding seats in the South and bolstering their chances of retaining House control in the 2026 midterms. Democrats counter that this could erase up to 19 Democrat-held districts, severely impacting minority representation.
However, the timing poses a major hurdle. While a decision might emerge when the court reconvenes on Friday, most observers, including Loyola Law School professor Justin Levitt, anticipate it in late June amid the court's end-of-term releases. "If it’s in any way a big deal, we’re not going to get that decision before June," Levitt said, noting that significant rulings often involve prolonged dissents.
Election deadlines are closing fast. States need time to adjust calendars, verify signatures, and produce ballots. In Louisiana, the plaintiff state, officials deem it already too late; candidate qualifying begins next month, and even with primaries shifted to May last year in anticipation of a 2025 ruling, a June decision won't suffice. Tammy Patrick of The Election Center emphasized the complexity: “It can get very complicated and very sticky, and that is not fast work.”
National Republicans argue legislatures can still shift deadlines before November, but southern states with early primaries—seven former Confederate states by May 19—face particular challenges. Florida plans a special session, Kentucky weighs a redraw despite a likely veto, and Virginia's Democrats consider a voter referendum. Yet, in states like South Carolina and Alabama, tight filing deadlines, such as late March in South Carolina, make changes improbable without upending elections.
David Becker of the Center for Election Innovation & Research highlighted the risks: “Anytime a state decides to redistrict, it creates a domino effect of administrative issues.” Utah's recent map upheaval illustrates the strain, with officials scrambling over delayed filings and ballot programming. Overall, the delay may preserve the status quo, thwarting GOP gains just long enough to influence House control.
