Colombia has seen a sharp drop in the manufacturing industry's share of its GDP, from 16% in 2005 to 9.9% in 2025. This structural decline is accompanied by relative growth in the agricultural sector, signaling reprimarization. Neighboring countries like Mexico and Brazil have maintained more stable industrial bases.
Over the past two decades, Colombia's production structure has shifted significantly. The manufacturing industry reduced its GDP share by 38%, from 16% to 9.9% between 2005 and 2025, a trend persisting across economic cycles. Meanwhile, services grew from 56.7% to 62.5%, but with a modest annual increase of 0.5%, driven by low-productivity activities like trade and lodging, rather than tech-intensive services.
The agricultural sector, with a 1.6% annual growth in its share, reached a size equivalent to all of manufacturing by 2025, marking an unprecedented convergence and indicating a less dynamic economy in production linkages. In regional comparison, Colombia leads in the scale of this deterioration. Peru shows reprimarization through mining expansion, but Mexico kept manufacturing stable via the T-MEC, with its transport sector rising from 13% to 29% of industry. Brazil's industry fell from 24% to 18%, recovering to 20% by 2025, supported by a tech-intensive and export-oriented agricultural sector.
Investment is central to this process. Colombia is the only regional country not recovering pre-pandemic levels, with rates 8.2% below 2019 in 2025. Industry and construction account for 87.4% of national investment, yet manufacturing loses ground, fostering a vicious cycle of disincentivized investments and stalled technological renewal. The Anif report warns that without a reindustrialization strategy or promotion of sophisticated services, the country risks entrenching a fragile production structure reliant on low-productivity activities.
