Rating agency Moody’s has confirmed France’s sovereign debt rating at Aa3 with negative outlook, reaffirming its October 2025 stance amid political and fiscal challenges. Unlike Standard & Poor’s and Fitch, which downgraded to A+ last autumn, the decision credits a parliamentary budgetary agreement between moderate left and center-right, plus a projected 2026 deficit of 5% of GDP. Moody’s emphasizes French institutions’ strength.
Moody’s confirmed on Friday evening the maintenance of France’s Aa3 rating with negative outlook. This follows its October 2025 decision to keep the rating but shift the outlook from stable to negative, citing political fragmentation risks.
France's public debt reached 115.6% of GDP in 2025 (€3,460 billion). The agency states the «budgetary agreement reached between the moderate left and center-right within a politically divided Parliament supports our assessment of the strength of French institutions and governance.» It forecasts a 2026 deficit of 5% of GDP, «slightly below our previous estimate of 5.2%».
In late March, Insee revised the 2025 deficit down to 5.1% from 5.4%, aligning closer to the government’s 5% target for 2026. However, Iranian crisis uncertainty has lifted France’s 10-year borrowing rates from 3.2% to 3.6%.
Debt is projected at 118.3% of GDP in 2026 and 119.8% in 2027 (OFCE), rising to 130% by 2030 (Cour des comptes). Moody’s remains more optimistic than rivals but observes some lower-rated countries manage better deficits.
