South Korean business sentiment pessimistic for May due to Middle East crisis

South Korea's business sentiment for May remains pessimistic due to the prolonged Middle East crisis, a Federation of Korean Industries survey showed Thursday. The business survey index for the top 600 companies by sales stood at 87.5, below the 100 benchmark where pessimists outnumber optimists. This marks two consecutive months below the line.

The Federation of Korean Industries (FKI) monthly poll of the country's top 600 companies by sales showed a business survey index (BSI) of 87.5 for May. A reading below 100 signals more pessimists than optimists. Manufacturing stood at 86.5, while non-manufacturing was at 88.4.

Within manufacturing, the oil refinery and chemical industry reported 89.7, and the automotive and transportation equipment sector posted 82.8. The FKI attributed the gloom to hikes in crude oil prices and shipping costs.

"To prevent external shocks from eroding the competitiveness of Korean companies, the government should support price stability for petroleum products, including naphtha and oil and gas, while swiftly preparing supplementary measures to minimize disruptions in raw material supplies and production," said Lee Sang-ho, head of the FKI's economic division.

A plastic bag factory in Ansan, south of Seoul, had shut down in March due to raw material shortages from Middle East tensions, according to a photo caption.

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Illustration of declining South Korean industrial output with factory scene and graphs, related to Middle East tensions.
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Statistics Korea reported on May 29 that industrial output fell 0.6 percent in April from March, with retail sales and facility investment also dropping 3.6 percent each.

South Korea's industrial output, retail sales and facility investment all rose from a month earlier in March, official data showed on April 30. It marked the first time since September that all three indicators posted on-month growth. A ministry official said the Middle East crisis has not yet impacted the economy.

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South Korea lost 40,000 jobs in May from a year earlier, marking the first decline in 17 months amid the impact of the prolonged Middle East conflict on the manufacturing sector.

Seoul shares ended flat on Friday as investors bought defense and shipbuilding stocks to offset declines in major tech shares amid Middle East tensions. The benchmark KOSPI edged down 0.18 point to close at 6,475.63. The South Korean won fell against the U.S. dollar.

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South Korean stocks opened lower on Friday after a recent rally and renewed military tensions in the Middle East following clashes between the United States and Iran.

South Korean stocks closed sharply lower on June 5 as investors locked in profits from recent tech gains amid uncertainty over U.S.-Iran peace negotiations.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) kept its 2026 growth forecast for South Korea unchanged at 1.9 percent despite the Middle East crisis. The institution raised its inflation outlook for this year by 0.7 percentage point to 2.5 percent, citing rising global oil prices. The Ministry of Economy and Finance said strong exports and effects from a supplementary budget kept the growth outlook steady.

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