Vladimir Putin's statements claiming Russia is ready for war if Europe wishes have alarmed many French people. Worried about escalation through NATO, some are already planning escapes to Canada. Polls show a rise in viewing Russia as a threat to the European Union.
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, French people like Nadège, a woman in her seventies, have been tormented by the fear of France becoming involved in a conflict. She worries that Vladimir Putin, described as an « unrestrained invader », will not limit himself to Ukraine and will target former USSR states like Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, protected by NATO's Article 5. In the event of French military intervention, Nadège plans to take her family to Canada, where French-speaking cousins would host them. « Canada is good because it's far enough from Russia and they speak French there », she explains seriously.
Drone incursions over European airspace and the speech by General Fabien Mandon, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, have heightened these fears. Mandon called on the country to « accept » « losing its children », interpreted as referring to military personnel, prompting strong reactions. Blanche, 26, from Paris, heard this with her mother, who suggested hiding her brother and fleeing abroad. « This is the first time authorities are talking to us about war », she notes, adding that it disrupts her travel plans and urges her to live in the moment amid fears of a third World War.
An Ifop poll from September and a Dynata survey in October show that 80% of French people view Russia as a threat to EU sovereignty, up from 72% a month earlier. Among Europeans, the figure is 79%, with 85% for Britons.
Jean de Gliniasty, former ambassador to Moscow, downplays the idea of Russian tanks rolling into Paris due to France's nuclear deterrence, but notes tensions reminiscent of the Cold War. He describes drone overflights as Russian psychological operations to unsettle public opinion and points to recent explosions on Russian tankers in the Black Sea and off Senegal, indicating a real risk of escalation. Media are blamed for fueling anxiety, as Marie, 54, mother of a navy servicewoman, laments: « Listening to them, everyone talks as if war is inevitable. » She questions French societal unity against a common enemy and trust in Emmanuel Macron. Gliniasty emphasizes that Europe's military budget exceeds Russia's, and Mandon is merely stating a basic truth about defense preparation.