Gold prices eye 2% weekly drop amid West Asia conflict and oil surge

In the ongoing West Asia conflict—now including heightened Iran-US tensions—gold prices were nearly flat on Friday but headed for a 2% weekly loss. Surging oil prices continue to drive inflation fears and expectations of prolonged high interest rates, tempering safe-haven demand.

Building on earlier declines since the West Asia war erupted late February, gold futures showed minimal movement but are tracking a roughly 2% weekly drop. Skyrocketing crude oil has intensified inflation concerns, prompting traders to bet on sustained elevated interest rates, which weigh on non-yielding gold. Reports from The Economic Times highlight impacts on MCX gold futures and central bank reserves amid persistent market volatility.

Gold's safe-haven status remains challenged by these dynamics, despite geopolitical risks from the Iran-US conflict. Analysts from LKP Securities and others foresee near-term volatility but long-term upside from central bank purchases and global uncertainties. No immediate price targets were specified.

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Illustration of Asian stock traders reacting to falling markets amid US-Iran tensions and rising oil prices.
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Asia shares slip amid escalating US-Iran tensions

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Global markets tumbled as US-Iran tensions and prolonged Israeli conflict drove oil prices higher. Asian shares and futures dipped, with investors preparing for extended fighting. The inflationary pressures have reduced expectations for central bank rate cuts.

Despite the ongoing war in West Asia battering global markets, gold prices in domestic and global markets are down around 27% from their January peak. Even after a nearly 2% rally over the last couple of days, high crude oil prices are fueling inflation fears, curbing safe-haven demand for gold. The US dollar has emerged as the preferred safe asset.

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Gold prices have fallen unexpectedly amid escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, diverging from their traditional safe-haven role. A strong U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields, and profit-taking after recent gains are key factors suppressing prices. Analysts note a choppy near-term outlook but constructive long-term prospects.

Geopolitical tensions have escalated following Israel's pre-emptive strike on Iran, driving demand for safe-haven assets. Gold and silver futures are anticipated to experience a gap-up opening on Monday. This development presents upside opportunities for bullion traders.

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Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Strait of Hormuz disruptions, oil prices rose nearly 8% amid ongoing tensions. Indian markets shed Rs 6.35 lakh crore on Tuesday, with the rupee weakening on supply fears. Globally, the dollar strengthened as a safe haven while the yen and euro weakened.

The price of Brent Crude Oil has risen to nearly 84 dollars per barrel amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This surge marks the highest level since July 2024 and raises concerns about potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts warn that the escalation could compound global inflation risks.

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Indian stock markets recorded a sharp decline on Monday due to escalating tensions in West Asia. US and Israel strikes on Iran caused crude oil prices to surge, heightening investor caution. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, potentially disrupting global oil supplies.

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