IMF warns of risks from high defence spending

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned in a new analysis that high defence spending poses risks despite growth impulses. In Germany, Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD) plans about 83 billion euros for defence this year. Worldwide, roughly half of all countries have raised their military budgets over the past five years.

Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD) will meet counterparts at the IMF's spring meeting in Washington next week. About a year ago, the Bundestag loosened the debt brake to allow more borrowing for armament spending. Klingbeil has elevated the defence budget to the second-largest item in the federal budget – from 47 billion euros five years ago to 83 billion now.

The IMF analysis, published on Wednesday, examines whether rising state spending on rearmament can boost economic growth. The fund confirms positive effects but warns of negative side effects already emerging – including in Germany.

Amid geopolitical tensions, the IMF expects the spending trend to continue. Roughly half of all countries have increased their military budgets over the past five years.

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Dramatic split-image depicting Middle East oil conflict impacting Spain's economy with declining IMF growth forecasts and housing policy recommendations.
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IMF cuts Spain's growth forecast to 2.1% due to Iran war

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The International Monetary Fund has cut its growth forecast for Spain's economy by two tenths, to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, due to the Middle East conflict. The organization attributes the adjustment mainly to rising oil and gas prices. It recommends eliminating rent controls and taking stronger action on housing.

Germany's Bundestag budget committee is deciding today on defense projects worth over 50 billion euros. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius highlights planning certainty for industry, while Greens politician Sahra Nanni criticizes the short processing time.

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China announced on Thursday a 7% increase in defense spending for 2026, the lowest rate in five years but still exceeding economic growth targets amid rising regional tensions. The move supports military modernization by 2035, with references to Taiwan. Premier Li Qiang highlighted improvements in combat readiness.

Fuel prices in Germany have risen sharply due to the Iran war. Federal Economics Minister Katherina Reiche has announced a cartel law investigation into the price surges. Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil warns oil companies of consequences if they exploit the situation.

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Deutscher Städtetag president Burkhard Jung demands €30 billion annual immediate aid from the federal government for municipalities starting no later than 2027. He described the financial situation as catastrophic, with deficits exceeding €30 billion in recent years. Causes include rising social spending and declining revenues.

The International Monetary Fund has reached a staff-level agreement with Ethiopia on the fourth review of its $3.4 billion Extended Credit Facility arrangement. This agreement paves the way for a $261 million disbursement, bringing total financial assistance to $2.13 billion. The IMF urged continued forex reforms and fiscal discipline to support economic stability.

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The International Monetary Fund has raised its 2026 growth projection for China to 4.5 percent, up 0.3 percentage points from its October forecast, due to eased trade tensions and sustained domestic policy support. China's 2025 growth forecast was also revised upward by 0.2 percentage points to 5 percent. The changes reflect stimulus measures and additional policy bank lending for investment.

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