Study assesses global livestock vulnerability to climate change
A new study published in Nature Climate Change examines how climate change threatens livestock systems worldwide. Researchers highlight regions like sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia as particularly at risk. The findings underscore the need for adaptive strategies to protect rural economies dependent on animal agriculture.
The study, led by scientists from the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), evaluates the vulnerability of livestock to climate change across different global regions. Published on October 15, 2023, it uses advanced modeling to project impacts under various emissions scenarios through 2050.
Key findings reveal that heat stress, reduced feed availability, and increased disease risks pose significant threats to livestock production. In sub-Saharan Africa, livestock output could decline by up to 20% due to rising temperatures and water scarcity. South Asia faces similar challenges, with projections of 15-18% reductions in milk and meat yields.
"Livestock are the backbone of many rural economies, providing income and nutrition for millions," said lead author Mario Herrero, an ILRI researcher. The study emphasizes that smallholder farmers in developing countries will be hit hardest, as they lack resources for adaptation.
The analysis draws on data from over 100 countries, incorporating factors like precipitation changes and extreme weather events. For instance, prolonged droughts could exacerbate feed shortages, while warmer conditions may boost parasite proliferation. In contrast, temperate regions like Europe and North America show lower vulnerability, with potential declines under 5%.
To mitigate these risks, the researchers recommend breeding heat-tolerant livestock breeds, improving water management, and diversifying feed sources. They also call for policy support to integrate climate resilience into agricultural planning. "Without action, food security in vulnerable areas could be severely compromised," Herrero added.
This work builds on prior ILRI research into sustainable livestock systems, providing a comprehensive vulnerability index that policymakers can use for targeted interventions. The study's global scope highlights the interconnectedness of climate impacts on agriculture.