Indonesian businesspeople in Jakarta react with concern to rising oil prices and inflation risks from the Iran-Israel conflict fallout, as monitored by Bank Indonesia.
Indonesian businesspeople in Jakarta react with concern to rising oil prices and inflation risks from the Iran-Israel conflict fallout, as monitored by Bank Indonesia.
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Indonesian Businesses Brace for Iran-Israel Conflict Fallout

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Following US-Israeli strikes on Iran—detailed in prior coverage—that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and escalated Middle East tensions with oil and gold surges, Indonesian businesses are implementing short-term risk mitigations amid rising costs, while Bank Indonesia monitors inflation risks.

Iran's retaliation and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz have driven Brent crude up 7.14% to $78.07 per barrel and gold 1.77% to $5,368.15 per troy ounce as of March 3, 2026, with Asian stocks declining.

Apindo Chair Shinta W. Kamdani described a 'wait and see but prepared' stance, with businesses adjusting costs, improving efficiency, managing forex exposure, and diversifying supplies. She urged government action on energy/food stability and an independent foreign policy.

Market observer Reydi Octa noted selective buying of energy/commodity stocks benefiting from higher oil prices, though the IHSG fell due to foreign outflows and a weakening rupiah.

Bank Indonesia Deputy Governor Aida S. Budiman highlighted inflation monitoring (February at 4.76% yoy), focusing on oil, gold, and food prices, while committing to exchange rate and inflation stability. Asia-Pacific markets dropped: Kospi -2%, Nikkei 225 -0.42%, S&P/ASX 200 -0.57%.

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Indonesian X users and analysts discuss economic fallout from US-Israeli strikes on Iran killing Khamenei, emphasizing oil and gold price surges, inflation risks under Bank Indonesia watch, business risk mitigations, export disruptions, rupiah weakening, and APBN pressures; sentiments range from cautious warnings to urgent calls for fiscal resilience.

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Illustration of Asian stock traders reacting to falling markets amid US-Iran tensions and rising oil prices.
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Asia shares slip amid escalating US-Iran tensions

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Global markets tumbled as US-Iran tensions and prolonged Israeli conflict drove oil prices higher. Asian shares and futures dipped, with investors preparing for extended fighting. The inflationary pressures have reduced expectations for central bank rate cuts.

Global crude oil prices have surpassed 115 USD per barrel, triggered by escalation in the Iran-AS-Israel war and Houthi threats. Economists warn of fiscal risks for Indonesia, including rupiah weakening to Rp17,002 per USD and potential APBN deficit. Pertamina denies rumors of non-subsidy fuel price hikes starting April 1, 2026.

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Brent crude oil prices have exceeded $100 a barrel amid Iranian attacks on commercial shipping and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency and the United States are releasing oil reserves to counter supply concerns. In India, the crisis is fueling inflation risks, higher agricultural input costs, and trade disruptions.

Tensions between the United States and Iran have disrupted energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026, spiking oil and LNG prices and affecting Indonesia. The country relies on imported fossil fuels but holds opportunities from critical mineral reserves. Experts recommend accelerating electric vehicle adoption and leveraging natural resources.

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South Korean stocks fell Friday morning after Iran's new leader vowed to maintain the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing global crude prices to fluctuate around the $100 level. The KOSPI index dropped sharply at the open but trimmed losses later while staying in negative territory. Disruptions at the key Middle East waterway persist despite U.S. President Donald Trump's claim that the war is nearing an end.

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