Preliminary February 2026 data point to a loss of momentum in the Mexican economy after a promising January start. Car sales dipped slightly and formal employment grew weakly, though there are no signs of recession.
The Mexican economy ended 2025 with moderate GDP growth of 1.8 percent year-over-year, driven by a 0.9 percent increase in the fourth quarter. The INEGI's Timely Economic Activity Indicator (IOAE) forecasted 0.3 percent monthly and 2.3 percent annual growth for January 2026, positive signs suggesting improvement.
However, early February indicators raise doubts about sustaining that momentum. INEGI reported sales of 118,297 light vehicles in February, a 0.3 percent year-over-year decline, contrasting with January's 9 percent rise. This market, reflecting consumer sentiment, spending decisions, and credit access, points to greater household caution.
The Manufacturing Orders Indicator fell 1.3 points to 50.2 in February, barely above the expansion threshold. Consumer confidence dropped 0.6 points in January, with worsening perceptions of the economic situation and employment. Formal employment added only 18,882 jobs in February, a 0.4 percent year-over-year increase, compared to 119,385 in February 2025.
These figures do not indicate a crisis but rather a cooling. The Bank of Mexico's analyst consensus projects 1.5 percent growth for 2026. Amid external uncertainties like the T-MEC review and U.S. tariff threats, the loss of vigor in consumption and industry could affect overall performance. More indicators will be needed to assess if February was a temporary dip or the start of stagnation.
