Hurricane Melissa has escalated into a Category 5 storm with 175 mph winds, poised to hit Jamaica on Monday night. The storm has already claimed four lives in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Climate change is amplifying its dangers through warmer oceans and increased moisture.
History is unfolding in the Atlantic as Hurricane Melissa becomes only the second season to produce three Category 5 hurricanes. With maximum sustained winds of 175 mph, the storm is set to strike Jamaica Monday night before moving toward Cuba. It has killed at least three people in Haiti and one in the Dominican Republic.
Jamaica faces multifaceted threats. The National Hurricane Center warns of up to 30 inches of rain, potentially causing “catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides.” A storm surge reaching 13 feet could inundate coastal areas. “No one living there has ever experienced anything like what is about to happen,” said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane scientist at the University of Miami.
Climate change has supercharged the storm. Warm ocean temperatures, made up to 800 times more likely by global heating, fueled its growth. The seas have absorbed 90 percent of excess atmospheric heat from human activity. Scientists estimate climate change boosted Melissa’s wind speeds by 10 mph, increasing potential damage by 50 percent. “The role climate change has played in making Hurricane Melissa incredibly dangerous is undeniable,” stated Marc Alessi, a climate attribution science fellow at the Union of Concerned Scientists.
Melissa underwent rapid intensification, doubling its wind speed from 70 to 140 mph in under 24 hours—a jump of at least 35 mph in a day. Such events are now twice as likely for Atlantic hurricanes due to rising ocean temperatures. The atmosphere holds 7 percent more moisture per degree Celsius of warming, enabling 50 percent more precipitation. As a slow-moving storm, Melissa will linger over Jamaica, worsening flooding in its mountainous terrain.
Sea level rise from thermal expansion heightens surge risks. “Just small, incremental, marginal changes in sea level can really drive intense changes,” noted Daniel Gilford, a climate scientist at Climate Central. The National Hurricane Center accurately forecasted the intensification, aiding preparations.