International weather centers warn of a possible super El Niño between 2026 and 2027. Ideam reports a 61 percent chance the phenomenon will set in between late May and June.
Leading climate prediction centers including Ecmwf, Noaa and JMA project a peak temperature in the Niño 3.4 region between +2.5 and +3.0°C. This intensity matches the extreme events of 1997/98 and 2015/16.
Subsurface heat content in the equatorial Pacific already shows anomalies near +5°C between 100 and 150 meters depth. Experts such as Kristjan Lepik note similarities to the 1997 phenomenon.
In Colombia, Ideam indicates April rainfall could be up to 70 percent below normal in the Andean region. Models assign a 61 percent probability to a super El Niño scenario for the December-January-February 2026-2027 quarter.
